| 98.527 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021? | Binary |
| 84.020 | Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021? | Binary |
| 82.657 | Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? | Binary |
| 63.834 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | Binary |
| 59.460 | What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? | Continuous |
| 57.856 | Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? | Binary |
| 48.112 | Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? | Binary |
| 47.483 | When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? | Continuous |
| 46.146 | Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021? | Binary |
| 39.937 | How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? | Continuous |
| 39.227 | Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year? | Binary |
| 35.779 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
| 35.669 | Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? | Binary |
| 32.984 | How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021? | Continuous |
| 32.775 | When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | Continuous |
| 31.047 | Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? | Binary |
| 28.993 | Will Trump freely leave the White House? | Binary |
| 28.237 | How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? | Continuous |
| 27.470 | Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? | Binary |
| 21.618 | When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | Continuous |
| 20.819 | How will Donald Trump rank among presidents? | Continuous |
| 20.072 | Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person? | Binary |
| 18.887 | Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day? | Binary |
| 14.957 | When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement? | Continuous |
| 8.681 | In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20] | Continuous |
| 7.386 | Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself? | Binary |
| 4.177 | When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people? | Continuous |
| 1.405 | Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? | Binary |
| -0.033 | Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? | Binary |
| -2.419 | If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name? | Binary |
| -8.777 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? | Binary |
| -11.546 | Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family? | Binary |
| -66.515 | Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? | Binary |
| -92.549 | Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges? | Binary |
| -139.718 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? | Binary |
| -183.899 | Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? | Continuous |