ItsRyan

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.012k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.350	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
72.538	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
54.905	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
53.147	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
45.286	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
42.821	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
42.602	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
40.299	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
39.619	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
39.426	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
38.547	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
33.467	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
33.442	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
31.175	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
27.945	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
24.812	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
24.528	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
24.296	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
21.618	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
20.380	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
18.890	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
18.638	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
16.093	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
13.481	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
13.459	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
11.575	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
10.055	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
9.692	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
9.177	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
8.898	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
8.172	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
7.851	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
7.576	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
7.574	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
6.928	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
6.826	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
6.762	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
6.618	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
6.466	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
6.447	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
6.173	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
5.602	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
5.042	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
4.623	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
4.164	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
3.721	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
2.960	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
2.864	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
2.514	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
2.258	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
1.943	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
1.741	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
1.213	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
0.838	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
0.838	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
0.703	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
0.599	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
0.590	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
0.182	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
0.126	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
0.100	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
0.032	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-0.084	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-0.236	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-0.502	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-3.816	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-4.412	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-5.533	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-6.911	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-17.592	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary