| 98.456 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.436 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.141 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 92.121 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri) | Binary |
| 89.267 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
| 87.995 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 86.316 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 83.991 | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 82.804 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
| 82.483 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 82.449 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 82.449 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 82.449 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 82.449 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 82.071 | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.731 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
| 80.272 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
| 80.176 | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
| 78.918 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
| 78.795 | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
| 77.584 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.477 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
| 75.991 | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 75.980 | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.975 | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.461 | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 75.431 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
| 73.530 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
| 73.294 | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 72.939 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 72.893 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
| 71.702 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 71.304 | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
| 70.685 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 68.787 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia) | Binary |
| 68.787 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
| 68.787 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
| 68.402 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 68.039 | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
| 67.279 | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 66.512 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director) | Binary |
| 66.125 | What will the number of votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election be? | Continuous |
| 66.005 | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 65.677 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 65.304 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.750 | Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025? | Binary |
| 64.602 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 62.729 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 62.642 | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
| 62.547 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
| 62.440 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.965 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
| 58.644 | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 57.495 | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
| 55.005 | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 54.882 | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
| 54.779 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 54.436 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 54.259 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 52.695 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
| 51.444 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
| 50.883 | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
| 50.112 | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 49.157 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 45.292 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
| 44.780 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China) | Binary |
| 43.804 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 42.315 | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
| 42.299 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 42.118 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 42.060 | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 41.110 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
| 41.048 | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 40.343 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 39.350 | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
| 39.122 | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
| 38.938 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
| 38.507 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
| 37.989 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh) | Binary |
| 37.145 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 37.145 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 35.794 | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ? | Binary |
| 33.854 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 33.447 | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 33.216 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.255 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 32.149 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.039 | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 31.330 | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 30.333 | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
| 29.330 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Democratic Alliance) | Continuous |
| 29.087 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African National Congress) | Continuous |
| 28.987 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 28.404 | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 28.086 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 27.331 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture) | Binary |
| 27.150 | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 26.135 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 25.324 | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 24.071 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France) | Binary |
| 22.848 | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 21.844 | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 21.580 | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 20.226 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.360 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico) | Binary |
| 14.257 | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
| 14.185 | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 13.630 | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 12.553 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda? | Multiple Choice |
| 12.184 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States) | Binary |
| 11.154 | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 10.811 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.248 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| 7.220 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I)) | Binary |
| 6.792 | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.623 | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
| 6.465 | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 5.919 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| 4.130 | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.972 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.531 | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
| 3.338 | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
| 3.073 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay) | Binary |
| 2.418 | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.398 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
| 1.294 | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.379 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.306 | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | Binary |
| 0.200 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.179 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Continuous |
| 0.043 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Democratic Alliance) | Binary |
| 0.043 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (uMkhonto we Sizwe Party) | Binary |
| 0.043 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Binary |
| 0.043 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (African National Congress) | Binary |
| 0.030 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Inkatha Freedom Party) | Binary |
| - | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| - | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
| -0.265 | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
| -1.038 | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
| -1.651 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil) | Binary |
| -3.067 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
| -3.705 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia) | Binary |
| -3.946 | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
| -4.899 | (closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -4.976 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -5.806 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| -5.910 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany) | Binary |
| -5.984 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress) | Binary |
| -7.053 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
| -7.492 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (uMkhonto we Sizwe) | Continuous |
| -7.550 | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -7.771 | How many of these Cabinet ministers will fail to be re-elected to the House of Commons at the next UK election? | Continuous |
| -10.680 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
| -11.387 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -13.990 | [Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election? | Binary |
| -13.995 | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
| -26.334 | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
| -26.878 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -27.845 | [Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election? | Binary |
| -30.571 | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
| -31.358 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -33.522 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
| -41.008 | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
| -44.166 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| -54.283 | Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award? | Multiple Choice |
| -54.488 | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
| -55.560 | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
| -62.026 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| -71.698 | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| -72.570 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| -89.034 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
| -91.636 | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
| -92.071 | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ? | Binary |
| -109.894 | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
| -127.577 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan) | Binary |
| -134.187 | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -142.060 | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
| -148.909 | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -152.248 | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| -169.611 | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
| -176.534 | How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the BJP win in the 2024 Indian election? | Continuous |
| -232.806 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
| -252.753 | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | Binary |