EmanueleAscani

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

795.8	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
70.819	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
64.814	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
63.562	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
49.200	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
45.527	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
40.227	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
38.645	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
38.416	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
38.168	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
36.582	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
35.758	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
32.409	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
30.952	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
30.659	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
28.435	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
26.049	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
24.978	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
21.384	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
17.572	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
16.959	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
11.290	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
9.510	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
8.850	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
8.848	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
8.461	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
3.410	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
2.836	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
2.226	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
1.108	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
0.609	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
0.393	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
-12.852	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary