Cato

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3718	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.925	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
101.365	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (March 2025)	Continuous
100.291	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
97.184	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
96.825	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
96.328	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2025)	Continuous
95.495	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
95.096	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
94.181	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2025)	Continuous
92.386	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
92.048	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
91.680	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
90.824	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
88.406	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
87.563	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
84.296	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
84.294	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
84.281	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
84.091	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
83.537	Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?	Binary
82.298	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
80.105	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
79.345	What percent of Americans will hold a favorable view of China per the Pew Research Center's 2025 annual poll?	Continuous
78.902	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
78.470	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
77.084	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
76.412	Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?	Binary
76.107	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
76.103	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
75.820	Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?	Binary
75.070	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
73.824	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
73.134	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
72.808	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
70.584	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
69.981	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
67.924	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-25)	Continuous
66.438	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
64.439	When will the Myanmar military junta collapse?	Multiple Choice
64.089	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
64.053	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
64.035	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
60.019	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-25)	Continuous
59.823	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
59.692	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
58.868	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
58.155	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
57.409	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
57.187	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
56.585	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
55.952	Will the U.S. tax code still allow carried interest to be taxed as a long-term capital gain on January 1, 2026?	Binary
52.288	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
47.719	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
46.248	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
43.221	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
42.481	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
42.196	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
40.423	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
39.488	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
37.475	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
36.041	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
35.508	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
34.807	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
33.113	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
32.453	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
32.226	What will happen next concerning the US executive order “Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid”?	Multiple Choice
31.514	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
31.044	Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?	Binary
30.729	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
29.396	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
29.138	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
27.771	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
27.506	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
26.719	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
26.619	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
26.150	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
26.084	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
20.407	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.651	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
19.610	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
19.610	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
17.999	What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election?	Continuous
17.782	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
17.318	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
16.253	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
15.832	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
14.385	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
13.987	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
13.462	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
13.409	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
13.239	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
13.190	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
12.784	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
12.073	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
11.947	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
9.941	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
9.003	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
7.919	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
7.841	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
7.835	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
7.493	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
6.892	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
6.394	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
6.276	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
6.054	Will the EU suspend visa liberalisation for Georgia before March 2026?	Binary
5.949	Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?	Binary
5.507	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
5.297	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
5.097	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
5.014	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
4.794	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
4.655	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
4.432	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
4.317	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
3.312	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
2.298	When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?	Continuous
1.949	Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?	Binary
1.743	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
1.724	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
1.179	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
0.382	Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?	Binary
0.376	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
-	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
-1.289	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-3.235	In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?	Binary
-3.596	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-3.859	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
-5.174	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-7.098	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
-7.566	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-10.106	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-12.160	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-14.994	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
-15.640	Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?	Binary
-16.847	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-17.251	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
-21.071	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-31.920	Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-31.970	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-32.338	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-39.679	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-72.184	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-73.885	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-88.407	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-99.021	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-99.348	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-112.559	Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-116.404	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-128.610	Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?	Binary
-175.295	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary
-246.097	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-250.843	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary