| 169.778 | How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 154.164 | How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 144.625 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward) | Continuous |
| 133.760 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green) | Continuous |
| 126.194 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian) | Continuous |
| 101.707 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 95.323 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 93.312 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.405 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 86.614 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 85.998 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 85.998 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 85.998 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 85.919 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 84.834 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 84.554 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 84.251 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 84.069 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 82.182 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 81.993 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 81.271 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 79.487 | How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 72.376 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 68.251 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 66.048 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 65.614 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 61.626 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 59.405 | Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.004 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 56.944 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) | Continuous |
| 55.727 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 55.664 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 55.654 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 55.645 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 55.294 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 55.230 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 55.108 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 54.205 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 54.041 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 53.910 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 52.298 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 51.099 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 50.777 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 49.578 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 49.176 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 48.439 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.984 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 45.006 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 44.602 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) | Continuous |
| 44.582 | What will be the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 44.364 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2025) | Continuous |
| 44.259 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 43.386 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R) | Continuous |
| 43.336 | What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023? | Continuous |
| 42.420 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 42.120 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 41.548 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 41.457 | Will Bud Light cease production by 2026? | Binary |
| 40.854 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026? | Binary |
| 40.724 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 38.503 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 37.894 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 37.128 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 36.155 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 35.680 | Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026? | Binary |
| 35.548 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 35.511 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 34.742 | What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 34.683 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.590 | If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 33.423 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 33.129 | Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026? | Binary |
| 33.084 | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 32.928 | What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 32.724 | Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? | Binary |
| 32.544 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 32.293 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 32.000 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 31.979 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 31.809 | Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| 31.478 | Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026? | Binary |
| 31.128 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron) | Continuous |
| 31.010 | Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 30.904 | What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 30.732 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 30.392 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 30.352 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 29.323 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 28.991 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025? | Continuous |
| 28.562 | Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026? | Binary |
| 28.443 | How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026? | Continuous |
| 26.456 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| 26.218 | Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026? | Binary |
| 26.118 | Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 25.978 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 25.527 | How many charter cities will exist by 2026? | Continuous |
| 25.452 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 24.697 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026? | Binary |
| 22.909 | What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025) | Continuous |
| 22.300 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 22.241 | Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025? | Binary |
| 22.048 | What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 21.890 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.612 | Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.621 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 19.348 | Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025? | Binary |
| 17.732 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| 17.563 | What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025) | Continuous |
| 16.961 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 16.263 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.161 | How much of major electronic design automation (EDA) companies' revenue will come from the Chinese market in the last quarter of 2025? | Continuous |
| 14.457 | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 14.248 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.890 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 11.576 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| 8.961 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 8.386 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 7.921 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.657 | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| 7.286 | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| 7.175 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 6.690 | Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025? | Binary |
| 5.784 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 5.592 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025? | Continuous |
| 4.650 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2025) | Continuous |
| 3.108 | Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.077 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.983 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q2) | Continuous |
| 2.798 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.698 | When will Moscow (stock) Exchange reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners? | Continuous |
| 2.493 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? | Continuous |
| 2.316 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.996 | What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 1.673 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 1.673 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 1.673 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 1.667 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 1.667 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 1.646 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 0.460 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.330 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.295 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -0.512 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -1.948 | What will be the share of people using the internet in Africa in 2025? | Continuous |
| -2.245 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q1) | Continuous |
| -2.348 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| -2.701 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | Continuous |
| -9.126 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| -20.559 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| -24.019 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| -26.211 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -28.966 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q3) | Continuous |
| -33.357 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -45.153 | Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -51.349 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -89.580 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -110.497 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |