kqr

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5027	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
209.871	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
178.415	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
96.963	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
96.127	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
94.501	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
92.860	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
90.871	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
90.533	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
90.420	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
89.820	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
85.613	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
83.743	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
82.392	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
82.154	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
81.974	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
81.140	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
77.230	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
75.135	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
75.064	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
74.792	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
74.792	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
74.792	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
74.792	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
74.792	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
72.703	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
71.259	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
69.525	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
67.716	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
67.716	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
67.716	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
67.716	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
67.716	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
65.070	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
62.527	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
60.291	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
59.680	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
59.570	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
57.637	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
56.819	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
55.884	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
55.082	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
55.082	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
55.082	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
55.082	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
55.082	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
55.082	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
55.082	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
54.217	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
52.292	Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?	Binary
51.674	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
51.535	How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025?	Continuous
49.822	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
49.169	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
47.900	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
46.424	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
45.100	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
43.581	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
42.099	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
39.052	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
37.894	What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024?	Continuous
36.959	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
36.732	What will be the share of global light vehicles sold which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
35.638	What will be the share of global light vehicles sold which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
35.201	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
34.193	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
34.193	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
33.789	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
33.684	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
33.684	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
33.640	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
33.239	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
33.171	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
33.171	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
32.832	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
32.652	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
32.462	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
32.331	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
32.128	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
32.128	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
31.826	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
29.704	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
27.778	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
26.645	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
26.464	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
26.430	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
24.930	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
23.792	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
23.145	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
22.926	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
21.585	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
21.474	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
21.394	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
21.099	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
20.815	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
19.180	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
18.987	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
18.885	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
18.834	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
18.828	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
17.454	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
17.151	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
16.519	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
16.404	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
16.110	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
16.036	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
15.152	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
13.644	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
13.624	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
13.088	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
13.047	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
12.760	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
12.412	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
12.065	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6)	Continuous
11.203	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
11.082	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.628	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
7.616	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
6.969	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
6.400	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
6.397	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
6.061	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
5.615	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
5.615	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
5.615	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
5.564	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
5.178	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
3.032	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
2.835	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
2.835	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
2.188	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
1.456	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.238	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
1.129	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.933	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
0.168	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
0.115	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
-	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-0.405	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-0.623	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
-1.812	Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?	Binary
-2.488	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-2.892	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-3.853	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
-8.858	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
-8.858	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
-8.858	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
-9.756	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
-11.356	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-11.970	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
-18.300	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-21.101	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
-22.808	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.089	Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?	Binary
-26.118	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
-30.573	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-46.445	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
-46.478	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
-99.406	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
-106.848	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-131.546	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous