| 98.228 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 91.917 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 87.281 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 87.281 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 86.745 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 86.745 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 86.745 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 85.120 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 85.120 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 85.089 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 84.926 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 84.561 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 79.885 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 78.840 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 73.444 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 68.898 | Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | Binary |
| 67.947 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 65.411 | Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 61.635 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 61.148 | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 60.106 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 59.360 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 57.928 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 57.928 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 57.905 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 57.597 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.170 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 55.986 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 55.986 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 55.922 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 55.880 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 55.716 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 55.716 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 55.716 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 55.319 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 55.225 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 54.867 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 54.625 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 54.235 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 53.823 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 52.731 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 52.573 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 51.955 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 51.647 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 50.637 | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| 49.245 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 46.642 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 46.381 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.176 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 45.331 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 42.445 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 41.509 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 41.311 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 41.146 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.262 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.197 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 39.347 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 39.325 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 38.727 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 37.796 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 37.473 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 37.207 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.891 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 35.699 | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | Binary |
| 35.115 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 34.502 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 34.268 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.156 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 31.673 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 31.634 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 31.619 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.448 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 27.332 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 26.960 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 26.496 | Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026? | Binary |
| 26.251 | Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025? | Binary |
| 26.014 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 25.888 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 25.571 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.293 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 25.026 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 24.094 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.806 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 22.632 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 22.541 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 22.464 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 22.333 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 22.272 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 22.236 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.196 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 20.337 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 19.761 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.413 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 18.059 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 17.974 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 17.934 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 17.825 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.248 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.009 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.831 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 14.814 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.695 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.898 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 11.469 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 11.314 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 10.785 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.785 | In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus? | Binary |
| 10.758 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 10.642 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.986 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 9.986 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 9.986 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 9.855 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |
| 9.574 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 9.260 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 8.924 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 8.853 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 8.480 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | Binary |
| 8.246 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.013 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 7.923 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.655 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |
| 6.535 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.410 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 5.886 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.319 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.599 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.743 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 3.526 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.234 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.192 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 2.618 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 2.615 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.328 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 2.153 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.086 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 2.086 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 2.086 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 2.086 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 1.994 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 1.935 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| 1.935 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| 1.646 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| 0.471 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.144 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 0.075 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang) | Binary |
| 0.000 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? | Binary |
| - | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.862 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| -2.002 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| -3.665 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -5.764 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -7.427 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -10.567 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -12.160 | Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -12.160 | If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025? | Binary |
| -14.334 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| -16.586 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -18.870 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -19.207 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -21.899 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| -25.754 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| -27.256 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -31.633 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -50.274 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| -54.763 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -63.892 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -66.878 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco) | Binary |
| -83.120 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| -144.727 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -267.379 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -353.513 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |