followthesilence

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2718	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.613	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
89.053	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
86.762	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
85.742	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
67.236	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
66.571	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
65.608	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
63.781	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
56.260	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
54.656	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
47.094	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
46.478	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
46.370	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24)	Continuous
36.983	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
35.727	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
35.727	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
35.727	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
35.727	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
35.727	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
35.445	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
35.144	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
34.742	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
33.148	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
30.781	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
30.781	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
30.324	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
30.093	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
28.665	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
27.869	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
26.693	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
25.908	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
25.564	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
24.957	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
23.487	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
21.887	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
21.098	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
20.357	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
19.851	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
19.851	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
19.851	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
19.851	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
19.743	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
19.407	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
18.963	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
18.956	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
18.956	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
18.956	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
18.956	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
18.956	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
18.936	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
18.846	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
18.633	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
18.633	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
18.633	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
18.259	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
18.149	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
17.987	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
17.776	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
17.725	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
17.713	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
17.648	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
17.568	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
17.526	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
17.438	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
17.418	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
17.392	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
17.265	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
17.253	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
17.156	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
17.083	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
17.078	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
16.889	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
16.743	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
16.488	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
16.174	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
15.718	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
15.624	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
15.263	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
14.609	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
14.554	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
14.541	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
14.409	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
14.040	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
13.790	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
13.773	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
13.759	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx)	Binary
12.775	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun)	Binary
11.866	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
11.685	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
11.572	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury)	Binary
11.480	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream)	Binary
11.421	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever)	Binary
10.770	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks)	Binary
10.770	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics)	Binary
10.725	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm)	Binary
10.702	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky)	Binary
10.702	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings)	Binary
9.637	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
8.944	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
8.900	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
8.710	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024)	Continuous
7.956	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces)	Binary
7.594	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
7.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
6.760	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
6.263	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
5.209	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
5.066	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
4.657	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
4.657	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
4.657	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
4.643	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
4.430	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
3.521	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
3.489	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24)	Continuous
3.347	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
2.760	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-24)	Continuous
2.219	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
1.885	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
1.882	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.547	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
1.329	Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?	Binary
0.830	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
0.252	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
0.133	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
-0.713	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
-1.415	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-2.632	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.623	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-4.979	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty)	Binary
-8.539	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-9.091	Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.988	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-25.869	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
-33.659	When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields?	Continuous
-43.394	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
-46.139	BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
-47.168	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-51.886	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
-52.726	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary