| 101.330 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 96.267 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.263 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.263 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.656 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 81.556 | What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)? | Continuous |
| 81.286 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 76.161 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 69.030 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 68.558 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 68.558 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 68.558 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 68.478 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 68.380 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 67.415 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 64.858 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 64.858 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 63.883 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 62.354 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 60.476 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 57.442 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 55.521 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 53.863 | Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.902 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 52.526 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 50.470 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 48.081 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 46.942 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 46.446 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 46.366 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 46.366 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 46.286 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 46.286 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 46.258 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.141 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 45.956 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 45.516 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 44.668 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 44.195 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 44.053 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 43.793 | What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 43.179 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| 43.055 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 42.840 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R) | Continuous |
| 42.296 | How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 41.725 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 41.602 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 41.410 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 41.154 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025? | Continuous |
| 40.567 | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 40.045 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 39.925 | Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| 39.463 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 39.322 | What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.882 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 36.596 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 36.193 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 35.685 | Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? | Binary |
| 35.493 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 35.028 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.887 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 34.823 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.402 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 33.980 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| 33.380 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 32.996 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 32.908 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 32.879 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 32.841 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 31.983 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron) | Continuous |
| 31.458 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 28.971 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 28.853 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 28.441 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 28.298 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 27.298 | Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026? | Binary |
| 26.920 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 26.674 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| 26.437 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.395 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 25.986 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 25.629 | What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 25.582 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 22.705 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 20.932 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 20.214 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 19.531 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 17.851 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 17.098 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 17.057 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 16.663 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.239 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 16.164 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 16.021 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.408 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 15.140 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 14.158 | What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 13.968 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 12.647 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 12.489 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.423 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 11.957 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.777 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 10.382 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.269 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.728 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2024 Q1) | Continuous |
| 9.556 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 9.469 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026) | Continuous |
| 9.386 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) | Continuous |
| 9.196 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) | Continuous |
| 8.941 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.788 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 8.514 | How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025? | Continuous |
| 8.248 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 8.214 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.152 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 8.128 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 7.717 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 7.150 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024) | Continuous |
| 6.947 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.831 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.290 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 6.137 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 5.879 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.646 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 5.551 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 5.509 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.387 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 5.180 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.164 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.162 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.153 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.151 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 4.859 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de FĂștbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.638 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 4.561 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 3.571 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 3.543 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 3.452 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.215 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 1.920 | Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.902 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 1.503 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.427 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 0.160 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| 0.068 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| -0.194 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? | Continuous |
| -0.847 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| -0.875 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
| -2.161 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -2.280 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -5.743 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -6.348 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -6.394 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2024 Q2) | Continuous |
| -7.301 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| -9.969 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -11.545 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| -16.148 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -20.122 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -22.202 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| -22.638 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| -26.240 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -30.408 | Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -44.740 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| -53.711 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| -58.195 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| -58.633 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -89.632 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| -117.914 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco) | Binary |
| -140.270 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| -180.226 | What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -192.646 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -215.645 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -296.884 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |