| 139.031 | Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize? | Continuous |
| 114.702 | On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 104.630 | How many months in prison will Hunter Biden be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 99.583 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? (No) → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 98.647 | Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? | Binary |
| 98.512 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026? | Binary |
| 98.418 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 97.827 | Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 97.356 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2024-2025 season? | Continuous |
| 97.242 | Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026? | Binary |
| 96.313 | Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 95.550 | Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 95.498 | Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025? | Binary |
| 95.360 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (TOP 09) | Continuous |
| 95.039 | Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 93.953 | Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026? | Binary |
| 93.801 | Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 92.979 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Mayors and Independents (STAN)) | Continuous |
| 92.885 | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026? | Binary |
| 92.590 | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus) | Binary |
| 92.584 | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (OpenAI / GPT-5) | Binary |
| 92.379 | Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 92.378 | What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 92.237 | Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? | Binary |
| 92.233 | Who will be the next chancellor of Germany after 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 91.065 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (ANO 2011) | Continuous |
| 89.954 | Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026? | Binary |
| 89.945 | Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 89.795 | Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025? | Binary |
| 88.741 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 88.392 | Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026? | Binary |
| 87.643 | Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months? | Binary |
| 87.622 | Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026? | Binary |
| 87.600 | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Republicans Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| 86.955 | Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI? | Binary |
| 86.689 | Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025? | Binary |
| 86.249 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 86.172 | Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 85.452 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (IBM) | Binary |
| 85.213 | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2025) | Continuous |
| 84.584 | Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026? | Binary |
| 83.765 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? | Binary |
| 83.263 | Which parties will form the governing coalition after the 2025 Germany Federal Elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 82.663 | When will a cabinet-level nomination by Donald Trump be first confirmed by the Senate in 2025? | Continuous |
| 82.624 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Pirate Party) | Continuous |
| 80.917 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 80.505 | Before the end of President Biden's term, will the Equal Rights Amendment be certified and published? | Binary |
| 80.309 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Binary |
| 80.107 | How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 79.786 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Apple) | Binary |
| 79.550 | On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? | Binary |
| 79.284 | Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025? | Binary |
| 79.100 | Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026? | Binary |
| 76.463 | Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026? | Binary |
| 74.104 | Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025? | Binary |
| 73.947 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 73.069 | Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026? | Binary |
| 72.319 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 72.268 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 72.176 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Meta) | Binary |
| 71.363 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2025) | Binary |
| 71.034 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 70.429 | How many US states will have a kindergarten measles vaccination rate below 90% for the 2024-2025 school year? | Continuous |
| 70.232 | Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024? | Binary |
| 68.260 | How many pounds of chicken per capita will the US consume in 2025? | Continuous |
| 68.247 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atlético Madrid) | Binary |
| 68.186 | Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.747 | Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025? | Binary |
| 67.143 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Civic Democratic Party (ODS)) | Continuous |
| 66.767 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayer Leverkusen) | Binary |
| 66.452 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 65.523 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD)) | Continuous |
| 65.354 | What will be the average vaccination rate in US counties that report at least five measles cases in 2024? | Continuous |
| 64.309 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Microsoft) | Binary |
| 62.687 | Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025? | Binary |
| 62.122 | Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025? | Binary |
| 61.145 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 60.979 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Juventus) | Binary |
| 60.938 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atalanta) | Binary |
| 60.878 | Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 57.982 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025? | Binary |
| 57.539 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 56.534 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 55.603 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL)) | Continuous |
| 53.584 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 52.431 | Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 52.199 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 51.555 | Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.405 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 50.819 | Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026? | Binary |
| 50.751 | What will be the nominal price of gas per gallon in the US on the following dates? (January 2026) | Continuous |
| 48.386 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.793 | How many of Donald Trump's appointments to the cabinet will not be confirmed by the Senate? | Multiple Choice |
| 47.043 | Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF? | Binary |
| 43.881 | How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| 43.660 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 42.935 | Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 42.610 | How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025? | Continuous |
| 39.630 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 35.235 | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026? | Binary |
| 33.986 | In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2025) | Continuous |
| 33.191 | Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases? | Binary |
| 31.384 | Will Denzel Washington win the Oscar for the Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II? | Binary |
| 31.007 | Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.792 | When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US? | Continuous |
| 23.060 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (India) | Binary |
| 22.210 | Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.935 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 17.406 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (December 2024) | Continuous |
| 16.855 | Will the US start the process of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 14.769 | Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.648 | Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023? | Binary |
| 13.386 | Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025? | Binary |
| 13.134 | Who will be elected President of Poland in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 5.861 | When will GPT-5 be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 4.014 | When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model? | Continuous |
| 1.982 | What party will win the most seats in the 2025 Republic of Ireland Parliamentary election? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.830 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| -2.765 | Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza? | Binary |
| -4.403 | Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024? | Binary |
| -4.746 | When will SpaceX first successfully catch a Starship booster with the tower? | Continuous |
| -5.117 | What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025? | Continuous |
| -9.027 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| -9.093 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025) | Continuous |
| -15.585 | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2025? | Continuous |
| -16.628 | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Democrats Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| -18.550 | Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes? | Continuous |
| -18.838 | Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| -22.785 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Malaysia) | Binary |
| -29.655 | Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024? | Binary |
| -46.287 | Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025? | Binary |
| -49.247 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| -93.181 | What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season? | Continuous |
| -100.304 | Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -124.214 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Amazon) | Binary |
| -132.690 | Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025? | Binary |
| -166.920 | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| -167.762 | Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025? | Binary |
| -187.571 | Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? | Binary |
| -262.425 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026? | Binary |
| -310.298 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |