| 104.130 | How many countries from the list below will establish space agencies or dedicated space programs specifically focused on addressing climate change and sustainable development before 2026? | Continuous |
| 91.599 | How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 90.075 | Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026? | Binary |
| 83.898 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 83.144 | Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025? | Binary |
| 71.624 | Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| 70.819 | What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 68.384 | What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025) | Continuous |
| 63.234 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 63.234 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 59.636 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 58.604 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026? | Binary |
| 58.540 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 58.313 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 58.313 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 57.942 | What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025) | Continuous |
| 56.466 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 56.438 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 55.771 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 55.599 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 52.021 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 51.972 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 51.926 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 51.926 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 51.655 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 51.291 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 51.231 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 51.023 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 50.987 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 50.987 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 50.987 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 50.987 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 50.929 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 50.076 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 49.637 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 47.222 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 46.832 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 46.699 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 46.484 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 45.248 | Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026? | Binary |
| 44.959 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 44.437 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 43.841 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 43.510 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 42.726 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 42.086 | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | Binary |
| 40.178 | How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025? | Continuous |
| 39.554 | What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 39.000 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 38.890 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 38.033 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 37.035 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 36.125 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 35.299 | Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term? | Binary |
| 33.152 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 31.996 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 30.938 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 29.525 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 29.392 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 28.038 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 27.825 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 27.342 | If Sahra Wagenknecht founds a new party, what percentage of the votes will this party get in the next German federal elections? | Continuous |
| 26.702 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 26.381 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 26.088 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 25.952 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 22.973 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 20.827 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 20.615 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 20.563 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 20.220 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.854 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 19.833 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.781 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 18.937 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 18.455 | When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case) | Continuous |
| 18.412 | Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026? | Binary |
| 18.254 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 18.188 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| 17.919 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| 17.404 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 16.813 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 16.070 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 15.358 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.339 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 15.339 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 15.339 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 15.295 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 15.295 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 15.156 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 15.138 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 15.138 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 15.078 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 15.046 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 15.028 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 14.983 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 14.810 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 14.805 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 14.637 | What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025) | Continuous |
| 14.606 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 14.257 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 14.204 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 14.117 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 14.113 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 13.970 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 13.833 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 12.917 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.749 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.747 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.744 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.741 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.706 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 11.335 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 9.934 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 9.908 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 9.766 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 7.711 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 6.843 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 6.790 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 6.106 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.944 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 4.500 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.296 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.075 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 2.906 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| 0.563 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.399 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.210 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| - | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| -0.393 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -1.491 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| -5.506 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| -8.995 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| -12.135 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| -12.177 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| -13.612 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -14.149 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -17.852 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -26.118 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -26.903 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| -28.449 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -35.202 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| -39.731 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -40.336 | How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025? | Continuous |
| -42.761 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -65.630 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -74.993 | Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026? | Binary |
| -98.242 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | Continuous |
| -135.443 | What will be the share of people using the internet in Africa in 2025? | Continuous |
| -137.871 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -156.481 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| -160.033 | When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case) | Continuous |
| -181.405 | How many infants will New Incentives' childhood vaccination program reach by the end of 2025? | Continuous |