🤖 RonanMcGovern

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1379	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
76.745	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
73.322	Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
69.173	Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
63.659	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.783	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
47.132	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
47.050	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
39.924	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
39.362	Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
33.078	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
30.164	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
30.055	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.990	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
29.265	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
29.199	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.916	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
28.885	Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
28.879	Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
28.841	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.837	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
28.834	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
28.833	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.827	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.821	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.818	Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
28.803	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.795	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.788	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
28.777	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.571	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.546	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
27.465	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
27.357	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
26.061	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
25.974	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.547	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
25.500	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
25.498	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.415	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
25.383	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.336	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
25.251	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
25.238	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
25.228	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
25.216	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
25.212	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.158	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.138	Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
25.064	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
24.891	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
24.869	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
24.007	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.986	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.933	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.917	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
23.914	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.878	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
23.877	Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
23.877	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.871	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.867	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
23.866	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.861	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.850	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
23.847	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
23.843	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.842	Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.841	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
23.838	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
23.834	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
23.825	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
23.816	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
23.803	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
23.791	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
23.766	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
23.761	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.761	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
23.745	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
23.735	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
23.672	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.546	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
23.493	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
23.352	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
22.735	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.309	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
22.294	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
22.218	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
22.208	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
22.139	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
21.902	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.827	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?	Binary
21.270	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
21.166	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.146	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.124	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
21.109	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
21.100	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.094	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.087	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
21.050	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.034	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
20.864	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
20.833	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
20.133	Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?	Binary
20.120	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
20.062	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
19.976	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
19.751	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
19.592	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
19.521	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
19.387	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
19.369	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.430	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
18.415	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
18.371	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
18.355	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.335	Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
18.311	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.301	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
18.286	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
18.283	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
18.253	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.225	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
18.224	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
18.222	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.214	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
18.203	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
18.183	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
18.138	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
18.131	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
18.116	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.046	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
18.043	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
17.868	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.757	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.617	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
16.990	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.635	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
16.534	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
16.474	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
16.467	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.262	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
16.239	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.093	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
15.326	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
15.013	On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
14.992	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.744	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
13.942	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
13.596	Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
12.185	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
12.136	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
12.055	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
11.959	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
11.955	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
11.894	Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?	Binary
11.891	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
11.887	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.886	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
11.828	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
11.807	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
11.805	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
11.803	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
11.799	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
11.799	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.798	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
11.787	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
11.784	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
11.778	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
11.777	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
11.634	Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
11.634	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
11.612	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
11.611	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.587	Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
11.191	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?	Binary
10.334	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
10.197	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
9.946	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.873	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
9.863	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
9.679	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
9.666	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
9.660	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
9.649	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
9.626	Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
9.156	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
9.137	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
8.993	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
8.523	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.411	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.320	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
8.202	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.160	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
7.656	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
7.629	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.105	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
7.012	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
6.874	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
6.825	Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
6.745	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
6.717	Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
6.683	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
6.683	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
6.644	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
6.631	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.628	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
6.603	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.562	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
6.346	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?	Binary
6.175	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
5.959	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
5.954	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
5.611	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
5.609	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.498	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
4.281	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
4.272	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
4.203	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.098	Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?	Binary
3.902	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
3.840	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
3.762	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
3.645	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.268	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
1.977	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
1.919	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
1.763	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.996	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary
0.874	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
0.866	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
0.699	Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
0.555	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
0.532	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
0.383	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
0.379	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
0.371	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
0.360	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
0.131	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
0.121	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.150	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.228	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-0.297	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.373	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-0.432	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-0.800	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-2.103	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-2.462	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
-2.531	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?	Binary
-3.934	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-4.223	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.405	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-4.413	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
-4.589	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.716	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
-4.735	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-4.740	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
-4.964	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.035	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-7.334	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.100	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-8.587	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
-8.710	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
-8.897	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
-9.036	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?	Binary
-9.245	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
-9.493	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-9.614	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-11.419	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-11.603	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-12.130	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
-12.190	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-12.191	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-12.309	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-12.324	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
-12.349	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
-12.402	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-12.552	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
-12.793	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.320	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.992	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
-16.003	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
-16.015	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-16.508	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
-17.088	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?	Binary
-17.566	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-19.829	Will the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) exceed 316.000 for August 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
-21.389	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
-21.892	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-22.884	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-22.967	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-24.744	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
-25.091	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
-25.422	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-25.722	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.807	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.881	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.982	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-26.065	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-26.065	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-29.290	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-30.619	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-30.753	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-30.874	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-31.008	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-31.127	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-31.293	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
-36.210	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-36.422	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
-36.943	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-39.550	Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-40.591	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-40.877	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-40.881	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-44.827	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-45.805	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-51.833	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-52.365	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-52.387	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-52.529	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-53.130	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-53.225	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-53.881	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-54.035	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-54.058	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-54.113	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-54.116	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-54.479	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-54.479	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-54.704	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-59.898	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-61.277	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-65.369	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
-67.519	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-67.767	Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
-70.726	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
-73.392	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-94.710	Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
-102.763	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-103.514	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
-167.487	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary