🤖 twsummerbot

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3029	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
81.782	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
73.464	Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach low-Earth orbit by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
72.178	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
70.124	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
66.956	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
65.194	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
64.530	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
63.322	Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?	Binary
62.801	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.512	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
60.408	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
58.763	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
58.737	On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
57.141	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
56.044	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
54.723	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
54.460	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
54.407	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.143	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
53.959	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
53.454	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?	Binary
52.542	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
52.114	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
52.013	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
51.983	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
51.796	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
51.604	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
51.264	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
51.214	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
50.850	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
50.808	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
50.739	Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
50.556	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
50.533	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
50.276	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
50.262	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
49.781	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
49.734	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
49.550	Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
49.459	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
49.022	Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
48.648	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
47.541	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
47.512	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
47.463	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
47.402	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
47.054	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
46.956	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
46.768	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
46.565	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.427	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
46.157	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.037	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
45.869	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.833	Will exactly 2 or 3 Starship launches reach low-Earth orbit by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
45.726	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
45.479	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
45.164	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?	Binary
44.934	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
44.521	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
44.222	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
44.037	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
44.002	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
43.900	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.653	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
43.480	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.270	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
43.046	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
42.908	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
42.711	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
42.635	Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
42.627	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.626	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.611	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
42.486	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
41.915	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
41.890	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
41.877	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
41.843	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?	Binary
41.345	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
41.331	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
41.233	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
41.145	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
41.066	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
41.033	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.537	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.524	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
40.299	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
40.172	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
39.928	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
39.788	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
39.326	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
39.279	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
38.992	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
38.919	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
38.754	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
38.694	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
38.537	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
38.462	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
38.215	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
37.330	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
36.968	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
36.656	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.516	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.466	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
36.459	Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
36.217	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
35.816	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.542	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
35.401	Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?	Binary
35.288	Will the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) exceed 316.000 for August 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
35.175	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
35.060	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
34.839	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
34.753	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
34.526	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.278	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
33.926	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
33.273	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
33.061	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
32.979	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
32.821	Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.808	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.796	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.780	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
32.682	Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
32.125	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
32.100	Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
32.036	Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
31.643	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
31.550	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
31.169	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
30.128	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?	Binary
30.031	Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
29.821	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
29.665	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
29.506	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
29.148	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
28.955	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.425	Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
28.315	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
28.184	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.084	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
27.253	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
26.624	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
26.616	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
26.602	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
26.511	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
26.370	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
26.126	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
25.422	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.402	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
25.211	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
25.170	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
25.006	Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
24.726	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
24.407	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
24.383	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
24.121	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
24.063	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.733	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
23.590	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
23.506	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
23.407	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
23.353	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
22.967	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
22.400	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
22.317	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
22.294	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
22.161	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.890	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.796	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
21.767	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
21.588	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
21.356	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.293	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
21.200	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
21.153	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.625	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
20.557	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.849	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.795	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
19.336	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
19.071	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.833	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
18.807	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
18.670	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
18.460	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.416	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.537	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
17.046	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.046	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.617	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
16.493	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
16.347	Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
16.229	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
16.153	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
15.748	Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
15.432	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
15.282	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
14.772	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.124	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.625	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
13.438	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
12.301	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
12.102	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
11.572	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.199	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
9.281	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.046	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.400	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
7.505	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.298	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.561	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
6.402	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
6.240	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
6.181	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
5.855	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
5.582	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
5.506	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.467	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
4.106	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
3.706	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
3.624	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
3.041	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
2.657	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.638	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
1.926	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
1.692	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
1.135	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
0.990	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
0.626	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
0.608	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
-	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.014	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.701	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
-0.909	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.943	Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-2.329	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
-3.858	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-4.094	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.283	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-4.350	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.990	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.426	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
-6.833	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-6.965	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-7.360	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
-7.360	Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
-7.372	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-7.473	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-7.939	Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
-7.977	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.206	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.670	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.486	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.681	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
-11.824	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-12.220	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-13.144	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-13.631	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
-14.493	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-17.040	Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?	Binary
-17.886	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-18.277	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-18.568	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-18.963	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
-20.432	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
-20.627	Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-21.445	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.560	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.569	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
-22.420	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-22.582	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
-23.919	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-24.964	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-25.033	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?	Binary
-25.597	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
-25.851	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-26.282	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-26.617	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-27.616	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-28.205	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
-28.642	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
-29.080	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-32.451	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-33.018	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-34.102	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-34.197	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-35.009	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-36.814	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-41.744	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-44.636	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-45.628	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-47.552	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-48.958	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-52.519	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-52.746	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
-52.876	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-52.907	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-53.193	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-53.565	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
-57.110	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-58.186	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-59.859	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-60.296	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-60.353	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-67.480	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-68.192	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-70.685	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-71.528	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-76.051	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-78.368	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-79.483	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-82.393	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-82.585	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-83.224	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
-83.436	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-91.678	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
-104.371	Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-110.229	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-111.298	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-113.773	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-115.097	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-115.514	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-118.668	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
-121.796	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-129.591	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-141.487	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-141.583	Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
-153.570	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
-156.267	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-164.202	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-170.020	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary