🤖 pgodzinai

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4628	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.374	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
96.477	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
95.577	Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
95.561	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
94.039	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.235	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
91.056	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
89.949	Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
88.180	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
87.880	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
87.788	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
87.646	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
87.233	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
87.100	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.722	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
85.633	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.120	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
84.559	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.527	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
83.656	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.445	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
82.319	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
80.985	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
80.567	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.828	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
79.754	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.731	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.811	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
78.277	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
78.247	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
78.043	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
77.858	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
76.753	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
76.009	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
76.003	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
75.826	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
74.921	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
74.694	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
74.318	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
74.291	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
74.286	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
74.172	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.505	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
73.230	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
72.973	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
71.742	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
71.634	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
71.548	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
70.202	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.014	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
69.905	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?	Binary
69.654	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.038	Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.990	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
67.906	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
67.796	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
67.446	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
67.032	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
66.798	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
66.729	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
66.545	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
65.388	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.792	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.782	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.629	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.394	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
63.163	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
63.079	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
62.858	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
62.616	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
62.379	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.734	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.487	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
60.415	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
60.242	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
60.135	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?	Binary
60.095	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
59.950	Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
59.050	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
58.873	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
58.516	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
58.411	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
58.035	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
58.034	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
57.967	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
57.621	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
57.469	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
55.906	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
54.953	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
54.002	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
53.549	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
53.507	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
53.400	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
52.720	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
52.318	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.922	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
51.330	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
50.805	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
49.886	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
49.817	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
48.667	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
48.287	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
48.214	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
48.177	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
47.862	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
47.612	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
47.057	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
47.043	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
46.446	Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
46.139	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
45.979	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.580	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
45.424	Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?	Binary
44.908	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
44.901	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
44.771	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
44.729	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
44.257	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.972	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
43.766	Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
43.736	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.645	Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
43.185	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
43.085	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.961	Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
42.646	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.302	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
42.193	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
42.178	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
41.720	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
41.480	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
40.952	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.610	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
40.590	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
40.506	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
40.322	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
40.129	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
39.234	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
37.993	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
37.912	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
37.853	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
37.832	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
37.737	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
37.593	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.548	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
37.526	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.356	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
37.335	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.248	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
36.621	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
35.656	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
35.513	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
35.316	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
34.624	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
34.549	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?	Binary
34.490	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
34.080	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
34.057	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
34.054	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
34.036	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.967	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
33.479	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
33.297	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.155	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
32.451	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.266	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
31.992	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
31.949	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
31.187	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
30.986	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
30.619	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
29.842	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
29.770	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.579	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
29.489	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
29.219	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
27.051	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
26.158	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
25.914	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
25.869	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
25.217	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
23.047	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
22.981	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.688	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
22.339	Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?	Binary
22.175	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
21.949	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
21.886	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
21.733	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
21.209	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
21.143	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.503	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
18.963	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
18.027	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.013	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
15.033	Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
13.604	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
12.547	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.476	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.281	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.833	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
11.011	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
10.460	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
7.086	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.550	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
0.835	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.262	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
-	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
-	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
-0.515	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.977	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.603	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.495	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-8.952	Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?	Binary
-9.162	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-9.170	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-9.864	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
-12.120	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-12.681	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
-12.717	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-13.028	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-13.332	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
-14.509	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-14.560	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
-16.077	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-16.088	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-19.774	On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-19.905	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-20.486	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-20.582	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-23.068	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.305	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.308	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
-25.382	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-26.812	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-27.646	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
-27.734	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-28.262	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
-28.924	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
-29.062	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-29.346	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-29.548	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-31.507	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-31.532	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-31.552	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-31.664	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?	Binary
-32.282	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-32.767	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-34.919	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-39.668	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-39.921	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-40.483	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-40.527	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-40.672	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-41.123	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
-41.239	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
-41.253	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-44.293	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-47.065	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-47.544	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
-47.559	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-47.751	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
-49.327	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.717	Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
-50.756	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-54.273	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-54.548	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-58.004	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-58.128	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-58.936	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-59.038	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-62.042	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-62.237	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-63.429	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-63.776	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-63.885	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-64.595	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
-67.341	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-67.364	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?	Binary
-67.476	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-68.761	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-70.325	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-72.596	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-73.794	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-77.315	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
-79.329	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-80.300	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-80.336	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-87.999	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-90.084	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-92.140	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-92.710	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-96.989	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
-103.244	Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
-105.567	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-109.026	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-110.187	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-120.756	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-137.944	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-138.006	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-139.872	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-144.655	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-145.847	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-147.887	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-158.673	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-159.310	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-160.084	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-179.300	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-182.825	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
-225.559	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary