| 92.022 | 99.4% | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.607 | 93.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 50.629 | 74.0% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 35.809 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 35.020 | 99.4% | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 33.648 | 99.9% | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 31.911 | 98.7% | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.275 | 99.9% | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.947 | 62.9% | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 28.414 | 99.7% | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.170 | 49.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 25.401 | 93.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 23.220 | 93.0% | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 21.148 | 99.9% | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 20.357 | 98.7% | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.461 | 55.7% | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 19.359 | 99.5% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 17.845 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 17.484 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 16.261 | 99.7% | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.346 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 15.305 | 26.0% | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 14.294 | 75.4% | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.452 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 13.324 | 99.6% | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 13.189 | 73.8% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 13.036 | 22.6% | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| 12.636 | 98.7% | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.561 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 12.162 | 85.4% | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 11.246 | 31.8% | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 11.222 | 99.8% | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 11.154 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 11.113 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 11.081 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 10.515 | 98.8% | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 9.991 | 96.4% | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 9.705 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 9.543 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 9.436 | 99.5% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 9.101 | 93.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 8.891 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 8.842 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 8.739 | 99.8% | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.626 | 92.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 8.417 | 92.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 8.286 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 8.144 | 93.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 7.696 | 99.6% | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 7.666 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 7.242 | 32.4% | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.006 | 80.1% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 6.991 | 98.8% | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.768 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 6.677 | 99.6% | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 6.297 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 5.744 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 5.649 | 40.3% | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.015 | 94.2% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.880 | 87.0% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 4.600 | 23.5% | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 4.320 | 93.2% | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 4.163 | 97.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.114 | 99.6% | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 3.951 | 71.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 3.935 | 17.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 3.861 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 3.786 | 84.9% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 3.601 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 3.464 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 3.435 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 3.421 | 8.5% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 3.360 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 3.355 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 3.178 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 3.169 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 2.997 | 49.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 2.894 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 2.849 | 93.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 2.825 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 2.806 | 99.5% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 2.799 | 99.5% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 2.798 | 71.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 2.734 | 80.1% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 2.721 | 93.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 2.592 | 93.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 2.589 | 92.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 2.582 | 36.2% | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.523 | 49.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 2.420 | 67.9% | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 2.417 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 2.367 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 2.069 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 2.016 | 99.5% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 1.965 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 1.726 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 1.597 | 17.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 1.568 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 1.535 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 1.511 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 1.404 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 1.374 | 70.0% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 1.349 | 99.5% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 1.333 | 17.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 1.285 | 8.5% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 1.219 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 1.156 | 38.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 1.152 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 1.141 | 63.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 1.065 | 49.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 0.966 | 86.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 0.770 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.734 | 70.0% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 0.695 | 17.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 0.667 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.650 | 70.0% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 0.638 | 1.5% | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.553 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 0.531 | 91.9% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 0.524 | 91.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 0.518 | 94.0% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.481 | 8.5% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 0.461 | 25.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 0.460 | 62.4% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.439 | 80.9% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 0.395 | 80.9% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 0.375 | 93.1% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 0.359 | 94.7% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 0.356 | 16.4% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 0.329 | 49.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 0.271 | 8.5% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 0.160 | 8.5% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 0.112 | 1.0% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 0.111 | 22.7% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 0.092 | 8.5% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 0.042 | 6.9% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 0.028 | 1.0% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -0.272 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -0.273 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -0.343 | 49.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| -1.811 | 99.5% | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| -5.827 | 25.6% | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -9.194 | 38.7% | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -13.267 | 93.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| -15.720 | 99.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |