Jotto

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.024	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
144.362	Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?	Continuous
46.079	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
32.107	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
25.519	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
25.398	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
24.592	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
23.660	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
20.179	How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)?	Continuous
19.713	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
18.780	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
18.012	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
16.673	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
15.963	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
15.690	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
13.023	Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?	Binary
12.756	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
12.325	[Short Fuse] What will this question's interest score be on October 3rd?	Continuous
11.370	If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate?	Continuous
11.040	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
10.958	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
10.496	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit?	Binary
10.464	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
10.444	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
10.174	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
9.956	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
9.693	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
9.410	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
8.861	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
8.636	Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?	Binary
8.514	How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?	Continuous
8.499	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
8.137	Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?	Binary
7.993	When will Steven Universe: The Movie be released?	Continuous
7.636	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
7.346	How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?	Continuous
7.324	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
7.048	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
6.952	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
6.705	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
6.599	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
6.422	How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election?	Continuous
5.883	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
5.698	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
5.590	Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?	Binary
4.941	If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?	Binary
4.646	Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020?	Binary
3.958	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
3.367	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
3.087	[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?	Binary
1.944	Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?	Binary
1.812	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
1.441	Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019?	Binary
0.960	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
0.778	By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?	Binary
0.633	[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?	Binary
0.366	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
-0.057	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
-0.599	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
-3.981	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
-4.081	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
-4.368	How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?	Continuous
-4.489	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
-4.591	Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?	Binary
-5.365	What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired?	Continuous
-5.646	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
-5.830	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed?	Binary
-6.904	Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?	Binary
-7.532	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
-7.765	When will Astralis stop being the number one ranked CS:GO team?	Continuous
-9.544	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
-11.399	Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?	Binary
-12.018	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety?	Binary
-12.240	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-12.439	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
-12.617	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
-12.944	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
-13.681	How many main characters will survive Game of Thrones?	Continuous
-34.666	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary