mattvdm

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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17.94		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
95.115	87.9%	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
65.555	80.7%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
65.548	81.8%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
62.932	83.9%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
62.919	97.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
58.183	83.6%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
54.752	99.8%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
45.122	99.7%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
41.232	98.5%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
37.519	99.9%	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
34.454	99.9%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
32.948	68.7%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
31.168	86.1%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
31.154	77.9%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
29.513	100.0%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
28.945	84.3%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
27.072	50.8%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
26.282	78.5%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
26.219	70.8%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
25.776	98.9%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
24.466	88.8%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
24.054	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
22.905	99.5%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
21.916	60.1%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
21.811	97.8%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
21.731	58.4%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
21.404	43.7%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
21.008	77.9%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
20.779	35.7%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
20.697	40.1%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
20.441	60.0%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
19.748	87.5%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
18.917	80.3%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
18.394	55.3%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
18.190	60.0%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
18.013	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
17.216	100.0%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
17.144	51.2%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
17.073	74.6%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
16.508	98.4%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
16.037	89.8%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
15.633	99.6%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
15.554	99.8%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
15.213	85.9%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
15.192	83.5%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.544	85.6%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
14.296	28.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
14.118	62.0%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
14.115	41.3%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
14.036	23.0%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
13.899	27.9%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
13.833	71.8%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.690	54.2%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
13.158	93.9%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
13.088	48.5%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
12.899	21.5%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
12.622	73.2%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
12.294	83.4%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
12.258	43.5%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
11.824	66.6%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
11.421	73.4%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
11.405	99.7%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
10.866	99.8%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
10.510	77.4%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
10.179	89.9%	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
10.000	61.6%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
9.861	100.0%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
9.612	59.6%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
9.152	94.8%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
9.087	95.4%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
8.891	94.6%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
8.824	8.8%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
8.745	77.2%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
8.438	65.4%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
7.938	100.0%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
7.838	99.7%	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
7.713	70.5%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
7.456	72.0%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
7.405	49.1%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
7.194	17.3%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
7.069	100.0%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
7.001	47.3%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
6.832	85.4%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
6.686	8.5%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
6.651	35.3%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
6.607	94.8%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
6.577	98.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
6.300	55.2%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
6.183	66.3%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
6.119	28.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
5.870	71.6%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
5.825	74.2%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
5.248	90.6%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
4.929	5.4%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
4.489	59.2%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
4.465	18.1%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
4.464	28.7%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
4.389	84.5%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
4.255	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
4.111	99.9%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
3.984	99.6%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
3.822	40.5%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
3.700	50.0%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
3.603	55.9%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
3.478	99.8%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
3.474	93.3%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
3.335	61.7%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
3.315	99.4%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
3.124	84.6%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
2.719	12.8%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
2.645	15.2%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
2.637	43.8%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
2.108	18.8%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
2.055	10.1%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
1.935	17.9%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
1.807	9.1%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
1.620	83.5%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.503	86.0%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
1.493	13.9%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
1.380	99.8%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
1.235	12.9%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
1.199	4.7%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.918	4.3%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
0.846	1.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.750	35.5%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
0.412	98.8%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
0.412	5.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
0.295	1.9%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
0.193	0.2%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
0.173	1.2%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
0.169	0.1%	When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?	Continuous
0.144	0.7%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
-3.041	88.2%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
-3.172	28.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
-3.686	58.8%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
-4.412	98.4%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-5.980	99.6%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
-7.243	98.6%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-8.824	69.2%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-8.873	99.4%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-13.472	90.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-14.038	87.1%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
-20.034	64.2%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-22.647	84.9%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-26.899	98.1%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-51.505	53.5%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary