elifland

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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18.74		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
104.688	78.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
77.669	99.6%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
74.002	92.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
70.300	97.1%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
68.347	86.5%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
66.414	74.8%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
66.071	98.7%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
64.509	93.2%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
63.635	92.4%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
62.017	80.0%	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
61.538	99.6%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
56.307	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
52.476	65.8%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
50.898	93.2%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
43.057	99.2%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
42.300	79.6%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
39.741	99.9%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
37.955	95.7%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
35.671	69.7%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
35.070	84.9%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
34.902	93.9%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
33.687	99.9%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
33.281	71.2%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
30.190	40.2%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
30.174	98.1%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
28.400	81.2%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
27.820	21.9%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
27.763	86.4%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
27.084	75.4%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
26.977	96.6%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
26.795	99.9%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
26.746	70.6%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
26.222	51.4%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
26.118	98.6%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
25.537	27.9%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
24.596	42.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
24.461	98.1%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
23.116	99.3%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
22.327	63.9%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
22.013	99.4%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
22.000	98.6%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
21.734	63.1%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
21.630	44.5%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
21.580	99.4%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
21.493	99.2%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
19.999	33.8%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
19.793	97.5%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
19.016	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
18.879	98.8%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
18.859	42.3%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
18.350	67.4%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
17.891	25.9%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
17.833	60.1%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
17.646	99.4%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
17.565	65.2%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
17.320	81.3%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
17.313	73.4%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
17.233	99.9%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
16.849	90.3%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
16.324	46.0%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
16.315	94.4%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
16.299	97.9%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
16.148	86.8%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
16.079	98.6%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
15.505	98.3%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
14.753	84.7%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
14.749	80.8%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
14.702	79.6%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
13.825	68.3%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.591	73.2%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
13.580	72.9%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
13.567	59.2%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
13.475	44.1%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
13.231	30.3%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
13.009	99.6%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
12.996	87.0%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
12.985	97.0%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
12.593	71.5%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
12.407	99.9%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
11.720	69.4%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
11.668	78.3%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
11.472	99.7%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
11.254	96.5%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
11.253	61.6%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
11.149	26.5%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
10.945	21.2%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
10.660	56.8%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
10.630	45.9%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
10.461	95.5%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
10.138	52.6%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
9.866	97.9%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
9.448	96.8%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
9.320	72.8%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
9.275	31.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
9.216	69.1%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
9.182	74.1%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
9.079	23.7%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
8.594	63.6%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
8.566	46.9%	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
8.496	59.6%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
8.338	17.1%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
8.216	97.1%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
7.873	62.5%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
7.831	51.8%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
7.785	78.4%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
7.710	98.7%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
7.634	60.0%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
7.326	80.1%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
7.299	62.1%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
6.822	20.9%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
6.539	94.1%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
6.435	91.8%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
6.383	56.5%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
6.210	98.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
5.974	42.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
5.904	71.7%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
5.749	7.0%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
5.503	17.6%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
5.443	71.1%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
5.250	38.1%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
4.884	31.2%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
4.723	22.0%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
4.635	24.0%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
4.545	4.7%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
4.197	15.4%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
4.159	88.9%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
4.120	99.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
3.814	29.9%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
3.727	18.0%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
3.692	99.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
3.597	45.1%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
3.550	17.7%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
3.531	42.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
3.500	67.9%	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
3.441	99.3%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
3.176	97.2%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
3.154	76.9%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
2.953	7.3%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
2.870	98.6%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
2.854	42.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
2.503	26.3%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
2.338	83.4%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.219	94.9%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
2.118	14.1%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
2.010	70.8%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
1.984	7.4%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.897	76.2%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
1.873	5.5%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
1.853	5.7%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
1.657	85.5%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.456	40.5%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
1.412	13.2%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
1.253	1.1%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
0.937	47.5%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
0.873	18.5%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
0.719	6.4%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
0.680	1.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.666	18.4%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
0.661	96.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
0.645	2.9%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
0.480	7.2%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
0.336	0.5%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
0.038	0.2%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
-0.039	98.3%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
-0.238	15.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
-0.309	11.7%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-0.640	52.2%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
-0.720	99.5%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
-0.756	40.6%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
-1.878	98.3%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-1.900	60.4%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
-2.623	79.0%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-3.609	9.3%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-5.675	53.9%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
-6.063	82.9%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-7.375	70.6%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-8.306	76.8%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
-8.559	66.8%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.656	98.3%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
-8.677	10.5%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-9.311	17.8%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-11.262	90.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-11.815	91.5%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-16.804	34.0%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
-27.149	89.3%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
-38.015	97.2%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-39.566	89.6%	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-43.433	99.9%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
-49.432	36.2%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-85.717	94.0%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-88.564	94.4%	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary