100.002 | 88.0% | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
94.424 | 78.2% | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
92.073 | 94.8% | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
86.968 | 99.9% | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
42.113 | 73.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
34.848 | 99.7% | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
32.423 | 63.0% | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
30.022 | 34.5% | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
29.646 | 89.2% | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.134 | 78.2% | What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament? | Multiple Choice |
28.598 | 99.9% | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
26.417 | 99.6% | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
25.210 | 76.4% | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
25.184 | 70.5% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
22.986 | 82.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
22.234 | 97.7% | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
21.660 | 98.1% | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
21.406 | 27.5% | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
21.329 | 70.3% | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
21.102 | 48.9% | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.302 | 51.7% | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
19.947 | 18.1% | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
19.934 | 33.0% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
18.453 | 94.3% | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
17.430 | 99.9% | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
16.834 | 72.0% | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
16.529 | 99.5% | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
16.314 | 73.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
15.371 | 29.7% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
15.356 | 97.0% | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
15.288 | 77.1% | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
15.008 | 80.9% | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
14.820 | 45.0% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
14.526 | 96.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
13.673 | 70.6% | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
12.332 | 72.8% | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
12.037 | 50.0% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
11.800 | 60.0% | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
10.710 | 14.0% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
9.069 | 95.8% | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
9.051 | 14.8% | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
8.875 | 84.3% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.627 | 45.1% | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
8.427 | 21.6% | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
8.281 | 49.5% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
8.010 | 23.8% | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.676 | 37.8% | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.004 | 49.3% | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
6.936 | 51.5% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
6.711 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
6.489 | 88.6% | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
5.274 | 73.2% | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
5.037 | 73.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
4.578 | 9.8% | What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election? | Continuous |
4.571 | 99.9% | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
4.265 | 95.1% | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
4.119 | 72.7% | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
3.918 | 82.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
3.663 | 13.7% | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
3.074 | 8.2% | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.420 | 12.0% | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
2.270 | 10.3% | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.260 | 13.6% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
2.259 | 8.3% | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
2.255 | 2.4% | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
2.019 | 49.8% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri) | Binary |
1.770 | 3.0% | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
1.724 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
1.723 | 13.8% | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
1.676 | 36.2% | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
1.537 | 96.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
1.364 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
1.214 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
0.879 | 29.0% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
0.856 | 1.5% | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
0.801 | 96.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
0.782 | 96.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
0.750 | 5.5% | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.666 | 10.3% | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.606 | 18.8% | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
0.578 | 0.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
0.489 | 3.1% | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.440 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
0.343 | 1.7% | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
0.298 | 0.8% | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.287 | 1.8% | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.282 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
0.249 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
0.242 | 2.2% | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.240 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
0.218 | 76.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
0.215 | 5.9% | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.201 | 1.4% | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.134 | 96.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
0.083 | 6.3% | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
0.051 | 1.1% | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.026 | 1.1% | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.018 | 0.4% | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
-2.959 | 93.8% | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
-3.535 | 96.5% | Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup? | Multiple Choice |
-6.687 | 29.8% | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
-10.167 | 9.4% | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
-12.654 | 79.0% | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
-23.211 | 62.1% | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-23.911 | 96.0% | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
-77.485 | 72.2% | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
-137.095 | 80.4% | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
-248.122 | 100.0% | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |