SimonM

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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19.02		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
116.293	85.8%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
110.436	83.2%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
108.681	99.5%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
108.323	99.9%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
87.960	75.1%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
80.187	99.9%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
71.942	73.1%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
62.056	95.6%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
59.806	79.7%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
57.083	99.9%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
55.985	93.5%	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
51.809	78.3%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
51.122	62.6%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
42.477	93.9%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
40.724	73.5%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
38.263	84.9%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
34.461	99.9%	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
32.846	96.8%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
32.450	93.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
31.761	100.0%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
30.545	81.8%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
29.115	82.9%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
28.819	87.2%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
28.605	84.4%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
27.354	99.7%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
27.296	96.7%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
27.285	97.6%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
27.210	52.1%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
26.963	70.1%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
26.359	99.8%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
26.101	78.9%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
26.070	66.6%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
25.473	79.2%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
25.010	27.5%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
24.117	96.7%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
23.247	99.8%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
23.190	99.4%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
23.158	96.1%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
22.766	75.4%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
22.179	83.0%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
22.065	99.8%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
21.503	97.6%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
20.725	99.6%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
20.702	80.6%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
20.561	32.9%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
20.529	68.2%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
20.436	60.7%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
20.228	100.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
20.219	80.9%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
20.125	77.9%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
20.123	100.0%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
20.076	93.4%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
19.004	84.4%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
18.697	49.1%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
18.624	58.4%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
18.481	54.6%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
18.278	79.2%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
18.083	95.3%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
17.990	88.4%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
17.614	72.3%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
17.416	85.1%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
17.300	71.3%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.494	98.1%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
16.217	99.9%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
16.094	99.9%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
16.034	35.8%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
16.003	34.5%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
15.515	80.8%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
15.500	99.6%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
15.358	100.0%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
15.030	76.3%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
15.029	75.6%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
14.882	97.5%	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
14.842	89.9%	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
14.403	40.2%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
14.322	80.7%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
14.041	70.1%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
13.996	57.2%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
13.988	66.9%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
13.773	76.8%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
13.383	35.4%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
13.306	81.3%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
13.034	73.0%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
13.026	99.8%	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
12.953	99.8%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
12.895	54.1%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
12.873	99.9%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
12.693	100.0%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
12.660	31.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
12.529	72.0%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
12.452	83.7%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
12.380	70.3%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
12.264	81.5%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
12.240	55.7%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
12.235	19.6%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
12.164	54.1%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
11.624	85.5%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
11.607	82.2%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
11.571	68.2%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
11.507	65.0%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
11.260	21.5%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
11.136	42.6%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
11.065	63.4%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
10.637	86.6%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
10.564	44.7%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
10.441	84.9%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
10.281	92.6%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
10.134	99.0%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
10.053	10.1%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
9.890	77.2%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
9.700	61.9%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
9.685	62.0%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
9.574	99.9%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
9.526	99.6%	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
9.518	75.2%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
9.513	98.3%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
9.492	89.8%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
9.411	72.7%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
9.129	99.8%	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
9.077	99.9%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
8.951	62.8%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
8.795	61.9%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
8.718	93.8%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
8.613	68.9%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
8.445	96.9%	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
8.336	88.7%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
8.285	83.2%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
8.164	59.6%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
8.092	99.9%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
7.896	58.4%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
7.888	99.9%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
7.819	85.2%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
7.650	99.8%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
7.649	49.9%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
7.195	9.5%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
7.165	47.3%	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
7.121	96.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
6.959	33.9%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
6.639	79.5%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
6.588	90.2%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
6.564	63.2%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
6.093	34.3%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
5.851	29.9%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
5.575	83.4%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
5.488	68.3%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
5.316	99.9%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
5.213	99.8%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
5.132	43.0%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
4.935	38.1%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
4.833	4.6%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
4.774	77.5%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
4.475	98.6%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
4.439	6.2%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
4.412	9.9%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
4.313	99.8%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
4.274	100.0%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
4.012	76.9%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
3.958	91.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
3.687	84.6%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
3.548	23.2%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
3.321	99.6%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
2.912	79.4%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
2.857	99.9%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
2.654	44.5%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
2.600	79.1%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
2.398	13.5%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
2.347	23.1%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
2.330	30.3%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
2.174	93.9%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
2.052	9.3%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
1.882	18.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
1.657	56.9%	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
1.656	85.5%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.516	87.8%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
1.387	23.9%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
1.327	10.6%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
1.313	6.4%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
1.080	11.6%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
0.994	62.1%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
0.990	94.2%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
0.954	2.9%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.939	36.9%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
0.910	2.8%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
0.905	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
0.451	9.8%	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
0.428	18.6%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
0.225	0.6%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.089	1.0%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-0.006	9.3%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-0.668	100.0%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
-1.431	94.9%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
-2.067	68.1%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
-2.347	100.0%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-6.221	97.1%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-9.452	100.0%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
-9.858	100.0%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-10.827	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
-12.448	30.1%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-18.016	92.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-34.023	56.6%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-34.677	94.3%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
-35.156	50.1%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-37.624	99.8%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
-42.515	90.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-187.612	100.0%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous