jowo

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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13.6		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
75.996	99.8%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
70.506	97.9%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
56.885	34.7%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
50.695	99.1%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
46.638	99.5%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
40.270	99.9%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
39.679	92.8%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
36.664	99.8%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
35.819	36.7%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
34.430	95.5%	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
29.330	84.2%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
28.696	38.6%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
28.636	99.6%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
25.775	91.6%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
25.681	99.2%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
24.942	93.2%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
24.303	99.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
24.295	90.5%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
23.847	41.0%	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
23.611	99.2%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
23.559	68.9%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
23.511	70.0%	If Sahra Wagenknecht founds a new party, what percentage of the votes will this party get in the next German federal elections?	Continuous
23.101	91.0%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
23.022	99.2%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
21.996	90.5%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
21.821	99.9%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
21.346	92.5%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
20.764	99.5%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
20.706	88.1%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
20.007	99.8%	If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?	Binary
19.976	31.5%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
19.619	79.6%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
18.076	99.9%	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
17.435	77.8%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
17.402	99.8%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
17.378	99.2%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
17.340	91.0%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
16.428	94.8%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
16.106	99.5%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
16.093	95.0%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
15.787	76.6%	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
15.122	99.5%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
15.066	99.5%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
15.047	94.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Labour)	Binary
14.705	100.0%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.449	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
13.317	98.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
13.049	99.3%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
13.009	90.5%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
12.581	99.8%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
12.214	28.9%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
12.079	44.2%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
11.884	99.5%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
11.855	60.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
11.578	65.8%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
11.378	53.6%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
11.320	54.4%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
11.246	49.1%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
10.002	99.5%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
9.877	99.6%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
9.709	99.9%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
9.565	99.2%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
9.495	99.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
9.177	99.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
8.145	34.6%	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
8.074	78.4%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
7.765	68.2%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
7.692	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.606	47.2%	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
7.408	34.7%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
7.208	49.0%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
6.817	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
6.751	45.3%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
6.656	14.6%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
6.083	56.5%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
5.987	99.8%	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
5.887	17.7%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
5.627	3.4%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
5.362	99.3%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
5.341	99.6%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
5.334	64.6%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
5.252	94.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Conservative)	Binary
5.247	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
5.218	42.9%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
4.930	99.6%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
4.502	99.9%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
4.256	99.1%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.196	54.6%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
4.183	68.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
3.803	62.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
3.682	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
3.464	52.0%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
3.279	18.0%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
3.059	99.8%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
3.038	99.5%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
3.026	99.8%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
3.001	17.8%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
2.813	100.0%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.757	99.3%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
2.562	6.1%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
2.412	99.8%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.349	68.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
2.296	99.9%	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
2.279	26.7%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
2.267	64.1%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.983	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.978	68.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
1.897	42.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.856	26.2%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
1.711	49.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.667	58.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
1.616	48.8%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Progress)	Binary
1.561	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.792	54.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
0.568	17.7%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
0.482	54.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
0.390	1.5%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.258	88.5%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
0.202	11.5%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-0.011	1.2%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.577	68.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
-0.843	46.1%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-3.048	95.0%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-4.040	99.7%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-5.848	99.8%	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
-6.433	28.2%	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
-6.863	31.7%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
-8.122	61.5%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
-11.449	22.1%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-12.858	20.1%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-14.461	99.8%	Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?	Binary
-14.702	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-16.521	85.7%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-23.226	99.1%	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
-40.488	89.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-52.662	92.7%	What will be the share of people using the internet in Africa in 2025?	Continuous
-63.167	44.1%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary