Cato

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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18.1		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
127.466	99.2%	Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
115.655	96.7%	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2025)	Continuous
98.316	99.3%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
96.363	99.4%	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
95.399	99.4%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
92.768	96.3%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
92.354	96.4%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
85.739	95.9%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
82.821	98.6%	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
80.136	95.1%	What will happen next concerning the US executive order “Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid”?	Multiple Choice
78.665	95.6%	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2025)	Continuous
77.445	99.4%	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
77.261	98.1%	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
76.969	90.5%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
76.565	70.2%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
76.380	95.3%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
75.471	94.0%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
74.241	99.4%	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
72.272	97.4%	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
71.651	78.1%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
66.849	97.9%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
65.966	97.9%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
53.940	99.4%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
52.555	99.3%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
51.680	87.2%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
46.645	99.4%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
45.470	91.7%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
41.378	94.9%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
40.688	98.1%	Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?	Binary
39.216	99.1%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
37.178	95.7%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
36.495	99.5%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
31.538	84.3%	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (March 2025)	Continuous
30.719	99.4%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
29.240	95.1%	What percent of Americans will hold a favorable view of China per the Pew Research Center's 2025 annual poll?	Continuous
28.784	98.6%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
27.458	56.6%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
26.968	99.4%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
26.925	95.5%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
25.169	99.4%	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
24.478	96.9%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
24.472	41.8%	When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?	Continuous
23.500	92.8%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
23.329	99.4%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
22.583	57.9%	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
21.402	99.4%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
21.046	31.7%	In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?	Binary
19.609	99.3%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
18.159	99.4%	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
17.600	99.4%	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
17.207	97.0%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
16.643	99.4%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
16.526	92.0%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
16.143	14.2%	Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?	Binary
15.886	31.7%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
15.620	99.4%	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
14.880	57.6%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
13.449	99.2%	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
12.741	93.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
12.321	93.0%	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
12.173	99.4%	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
11.432	37.5%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
10.932	76.3%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
9.965	17.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
9.948	99.4%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
9.047	98.5%	Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?	Binary
8.962	48.4%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
8.717	98.6%	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
8.514	98.6%	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
7.675	99.4%	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
7.395	99.4%	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
7.318	15.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.132	15.4%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
6.886	42.5%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
6.376	78.6%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
5.911	31.6%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
5.650	25.0%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
5.180	58.3%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
4.755	25.1%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
4.528	99.0%	Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?	Binary
4.488	99.0%	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
4.422	98.1%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
3.825	53.1%	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
3.768	31.7%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
3.117	79.0%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
2.443	99.2%	Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?	Binary
2.172	34.9%	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
2.116	10.1%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
1.894	93.4%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
1.845	98.0%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
1.840	8.3%	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
1.813	8.9%	Will the EU suspend visa liberalisation for Georgia before March 2026?	Binary
1.529	31.3%	What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election?	Continuous
1.429	29.7%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
1.280	11.8%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
1.123	28.9%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
1.048	99.4%	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
1.031	33.9%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
0.867	33.6%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
0.819	2.0%	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
-0.079	0.9%	Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?	Binary
-0.132	98.6%	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
-0.561	11.0%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-0.634	96.3%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-0.937	36.8%	Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?	Binary
-2.524	80.2%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-2.743	31.9%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
-2.985	18.6%	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
-3.261	19.1%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
-3.280	87.5%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-4.549	39.7%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-4.569	98.0%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
-5.208	12.8%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-5.690	99.4%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-6.067	97.3%	Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?	Binary
-6.678	97.0%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-7.096	99.4%	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
-7.304	45.4%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-9.459	99.4%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
-9.644	12.9%	Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?	Binary
-9.920	47.8%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-11.259	57.6%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-13.545	98.6%	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
-13.725	51.8%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
-13.948	99.3%	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-14.216	99.4%	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
-14.589	99.9%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
-15.534	99.9%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
-17.107	97.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-25)	Continuous
-18.017	99.9%	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-19.448	94.8%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
-20.045	95.7%	Will the U.S. tax code still allow carried interest to be taxed as a long-term capital gain on January 1, 2026?	Binary
-22.386	98.7%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
-23.078	99.9%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
-23.907	99.0%	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
-24.126	93.8%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-24.312	97.9%	When will the Myanmar military junta collapse?	Multiple Choice
-24.993	99.3%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-25.047	93.7%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-26.284	99.9%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
-26.737	99.4%	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-27.654	99.7%	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
-28.904	99.9%	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
-29.230	99.4%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
-30.051	33.4%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-34.431	96.8%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-25)	Continuous
-35.674	19.6%	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary
-36.063	99.9%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-38.019	96.6%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
-48.994	97.4%	Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-50.950	99.9%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-138.653	75.5%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary