Cato

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2024-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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17.79		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
75.370	96.7%	Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?	Binary
52.072	71.6%	What will be the nominal price of gas per gallon in the US on the following dates? (January 2026)	Continuous
50.372	47.5%	Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?	Binary
42.249	86.2%	What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025?	Continuous
40.766	77.1%	Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?	Binary
40.592	97.5%	Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?	Binary
36.630	50.0%	Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years? (2026)	Binary
35.942	82.6%	Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?	Binary
34.038	41.9%	Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?	Binary
33.909	50.1%	Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?	Binary
33.637	97.5%	Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?	Binary
32.184	46.0%	On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2025)	Continuous
31.233	97.4%	Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?	Binary
30.460	97.5%	Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?	Binary
29.046	43.3%	Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2025)	Binary
28.780	97.5%	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?	Binary
28.253	85.9%	Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?	Binary
26.731	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Mexico)	Binary
25.934	91.8%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?	Binary
25.408	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Sri Lanka)	Binary
23.417	53.9%	Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
22.568	97.5%	Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?	Binary
22.485	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Indonesia)	Binary
22.272	50.0%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Alibaba)	Binary
22.233	97.5%	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?	Binary
21.821	79.1%	Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?	Binary
21.479	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (The Philippines)	Binary
21.375	97.5%	Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?	Binary
20.775	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
20.448	59.8%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
19.555	52.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-25)	Continuous
19.109	24.7%	Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?	Binary
18.971	28.5%	When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?	Continuous
18.398	25.7%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Singapore)	Binary
17.560	56.5%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Mar-25)	Continuous
17.445	63.1%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Apr-25)	Continuous
16.814	97.5%	Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?	Binary
15.736	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Thailand)	Binary
15.488	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Taiwan)	Binary
15.389	40.7%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Mar-25)	Continuous
15.185	86.1%	Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?	Binary
14.327	97.5%	How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?	Continuous
14.225	50.0%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Baidu)	Binary
11.920	53.7%	How many months in prison will Hunter Biden be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
11.731	76.1%	What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
11.129	50.0%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Meta)	Binary
11.067	66.1%	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?	Binary
11.046	97.5%	Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?	Binary
10.306	49.6%	Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?	Binary
9.924	69.8%	How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?	Continuous
9.860	45.4%	Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025?	Binary
9.470	62.2%	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q4)	Continuous
9.253	50.9%	Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?	Binary
8.481	68.7%	Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?	Binary
8.190	57.8%	Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?	Binary
7.599	95.5%	Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?	Binary
7.375	50.0%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)	Binary
7.192	60.1%	Who will be the next chancellor of Germany after 2024?	Multiple Choice
6.982	49.8%	Which parties will form the governing coalition after the 2025 Germany Federal Elections?	Multiple Choice
6.872	52.2%	Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?	Binary
6.479	76.1%	Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?	Binary
6.115	59.9%	Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?	Binary
5.733	25.7%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Malaysia)	Binary
5.595	14.9%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-25)	Continuous
5.535	40.9%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-25)	Continuous
5.516	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (India)	Binary
5.056	33.2%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Jan-25)	Continuous
4.912	67.6%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?	Binary
4.525	47.5%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Feb-25)	Continuous
4.163	50.0%	Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years? (2026)	Binary
4.128	49.2%	Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?	Binary
4.097	62.0%	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?	Binary
3.333	85.2%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? (No) → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?	Binary
3.281	51.4%	On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?	Binary
2.863	41.6%	Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?	Binary
2.719	45.2%	Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?	Binary
2.676	38.2%	Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?	Binary
2.604	34.6%	Will Denzel Washington win the Oscar for the Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II?	Binary
2.512	16.9%	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?	Binary
2.140	49.7%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-25)	Continuous
2.000	51.8%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-25)	Continuous
1.617	7.5%	Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?	Binary
1.488	51.4%	On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?	Continuous
1.030	35.2%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-25)	Continuous
0.822	11.3%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Dec-24)	Continuous
0.606	22.0%	Who will win the 2025 election for President of Ecuador?	Multiple Choice
0.485	3.5%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.337	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Jack Smith (special counsel))	Binary
0.126	50.0%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Microsoft)	Binary
0.099	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA))	Binary
0.099	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.083	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Michael Cohen (former Trump lawyer))	Binary
0.080	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Letitia James (New York attorney general))	Binary
0.079	97.5%	Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?	Binary
0.075	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Arthur Engoron (New York judge))	Binary
0.071	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Juan Merchan (New York judge))	Binary
0.067	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Alvin Bragg (Manhattan DA))	Binary
0.063	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Barack Obama)	Binary
0.062	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Joe Biden)	Binary
0.062	3.4%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (xAI)	Binary
0.019	2.8%	Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Stephanie Clifford (AKA Stormy Daniels))	Binary
-	12.3%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-25)	Continuous
-0.434	34.6%	Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?	Binary
-0.498	58.7%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-25)	Continuous
-0.646	22.1%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-25)	Continuous
-0.991	97.5%	Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-2.261	51.3%	Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes?	Continuous
-2.894	97.5%	Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?	Binary
-5.454	18.9%	Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025?	Binary
-6.613	74.0%	How much money in billions of USD will NIH award in Research Project Grants in the 2025 Fiscal Year 2025 (Oct 1, 2024 - Sep 30, 2025)?	Continuous
-8.031	86.7%	Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?	Binary
-8.887	48.5%	Who will be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-11.575	97.1%	Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?	Binary
-11.641	97.5%	Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?	Binary
-12.306	16.5%	Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100)	Binary
-14.453	56.9%	Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?	Binary
-14.510	18.9%	Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (1,000)	Binary
-19.104	46.9%	Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Vietnam)	Binary
-23.739	97.5%	Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026?	Binary
-35.070	97.5%	How many pounds of chicken per capita will the US consume in 2025?	Continuous
-36.302	24.3%	Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025?	Binary
-62.981	74.6%	Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?	Binary