SpottedBear

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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48.67		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
172.059	99.6%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
152.310	98.8%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
129.100	99.5%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
126.401	97.5%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
125.377	99.7%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
122.519	97.5%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
121.378	97.3%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
111.159	99.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
109.698	97.6%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
109.161	99.4%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
101.053	99.5%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
90.668	99.6%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
89.230	99.4%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
83.946	96.1%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
83.403	99.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
80.875	99.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
80.691	99.9%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
79.989	96.9%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
79.326	99.8%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
78.210	99.6%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
77.875	96.5%	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
75.890	100.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
75.835	98.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
75.199	87.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
73.940	99.5%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
71.919	96.9%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
68.941	99.5%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
68.158	99.6%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
68.023	99.6%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
64.959	100.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
63.911	99.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
63.895	93.6%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
63.238	97.2%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
61.767	99.5%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
58.771	98.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
58.233	98.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
56.945	95.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
53.648	100.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
53.307	97.2%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
51.925	93.9%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
48.248	99.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
48.044	96.1%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
43.583	94.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
42.709	84.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
42.425	99.3%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
42.368	99.8%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
40.852	91.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
40.265	99.6%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
40.091	97.0%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
38.423	99.7%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
37.804	100.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
35.452	95.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
33.953	99.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
32.660	99.7%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
32.368	99.8%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
32.325	81.1%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
31.654	98.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
30.830	98.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
29.550	93.7%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
28.563	99.6%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
27.219	88.0%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
26.277	99.5%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
24.997	93.8%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
22.165	81.6%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
20.454	84.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
19.925	77.1%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
19.669	96.4%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
19.145	81.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
18.982	95.7%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
18.164	96.1%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
16.864	99.8%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
16.109	84.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
15.358	81.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
14.676	99.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
13.992	98.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
13.475	98.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
12.085	98.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
11.808	18.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.457	99.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
9.880	96.4%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
9.643	99.5%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
9.064	16.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.057	81.1%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
7.695	99.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
5.246	99.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
2.999	24.5%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
2.177	11.2%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
1.872	29.2%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
1.232	10.2%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
0.984	19.5%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
0.831	96.1%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
0.548	12.6%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
0.491	1.5%	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
-0.482	10.8%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-1.225	84.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-4.740	95.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-6.510	98.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-7.361	99.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-9.200	23.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-9.467	92.9%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-9.577	84.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-11.450	28.7%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-18.606	98.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-20.756	34.5%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-186.150	94.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary