| 53.962 | 97.7% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 44.230 | 97.4% | Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025? | Binary |
| 37.528 | 97.4% | Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026? | Binary |
| 36.591 | 97.3% | Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? | Binary |
| 34.381 | 97.4% | Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026? | Binary |
| 34.035 | 97.4% | Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI? | Binary |
| 32.337 | 97.4% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025? | Binary |
| 32.243 | 97.4% | Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025? | Binary |
| 31.543 | 99.2% | Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 31.236 | 44.3% | When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model? | Continuous |
| 30.327 | 97.4% | Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026? | Binary |
| 29.717 | 99.1% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? | Binary |
| 29.283 | 92.4% | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Binary |
| 28.964 | 99.5% | How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| 28.529 | 97.5% | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2025? | Continuous |
| 27.641 | 97.4% | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026? | Binary |
| 26.312 | 97.4% | Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 24.976 | 97.7% | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 24.747 | 23.4% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 24.386 | 98.7% | Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025? (No) → How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| 23.578 | 97.4% | Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026? | Binary |
| 23.160 | 99.4% | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2024-2025 season? | Continuous |
| 20.162 | 75.0% | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 20.104 | 97.7% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 19.889 | 99.2% | Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.334 | 99.3% | Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.313 | 99.5% | What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 19.159 | 97.7% | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 18.227 | 98.1% | Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 17.872 | 97.4% | Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026? | Binary |
| 17.536 | 97.7% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 17.342 | 45.6% | Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 17.219 | 76.7% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 18, 2025) | Continuous |
| 16.615 | 99.4% | Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 16.550 | 97.9% | What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season? | Continuous |
| 16.189 | 97.4% | Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025? | Binary |
| 15.420 | 97.9% | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 15.228 | 25.9% | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2025) | Binary |
| 15.059 | 43.7% | Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 14.619 | 36.4% | Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025? | Binary |
| 14.551 | 85.8% | How many pounds of chicken per capita will the US consume in 2025? | Continuous |
| 14.288 | 18.1% | Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.231 | 36.6% | Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026? | Binary |
| 14.016 | 99.3% | How many US states will have a kindergarten measles vaccination rate below 90% for the 2024-2025 school year? | Continuous |
| 13.588 | 55.0% | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100) | Binary |
| 13.466 | 41.8% | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.253 | 96.1% | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 18, 2025) | Continuous |
| 12.920 | 15.9% | Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026? | Binary |
| 12.687 | 82.6% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (February 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| 12.083 | 97.6% | What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2024-25 season be among the following groups in the US? (Infants < 8 months) | Continuous |
| 12.042 | 37.7% | Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026? | Binary |
| 11.869 | 85.9% | Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024? | Binary |
| 11.844 | 97.7% | What will be the flu vaccine coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US? (Children 6 months to 17 years) | Continuous |
| 11.098 | 26.5% | Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 10.264 | 33.8% | Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.763 | 53.5% | Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025? | Binary |
| 9.717 | 99.5% | Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 9.689 | 97.4% | Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 9.003 | 97.9% | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 8.856 | 99.6% | What will be the average vaccination rate in US counties that report at least five measles cases in 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.714 | 97.9% | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 8.561 | 94.2% | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H1N1) | Continuous |
| 8.193 | 97.7% | What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US? (Children 6 months to 17 years) | Continuous |
| 7.922 | 99.9% | Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.631 | 38.4% | Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors? | Binary |
| 7.629 | 42.9% | Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 7.145 | 43.6% | Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026? | Binary |
| 6.967 | 33.0% | How many months in prison will Hunter Biden be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 5.651 | 41.7% | Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.640 | 36.5% | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.363 | 54.0% | Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 5.037 | 94.2% | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H3N2) | Continuous |
| 5.010 | 18.8% | Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025? | Binary |
| 4.872 | 34.7% | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (3,000) | Binary |
| 4.640 | 44.1% | Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 4.398 | 14.1% | Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.369 | 29.2% | On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? | Binary |
| 4.355 | 30.2% | Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 4.034 | 30.3% | Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.866 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Alibaba) | Binary |
| 3.651 | 97.7% | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 3.567 | 33.8% | Will Denzel Washington win the Oscar for the Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II? | Binary |
| 3.378 | 98.4% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? (No) → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 3.234 | 7.3% | Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza? | Binary |
| 3.191 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Mistral AI) | Binary |
| 2.985 | 96.9% | Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023? | Binary |
| 2.756 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Meta) | Binary |
| 2.705 | 31.5% | Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months? | Binary |
| 2.449 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Baidu) | Binary |
| 2.413 | 27.2% | Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.374 | 6.8% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 2.217 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face) | Binary |
| 1.999 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Microsoft) | Binary |
| 1.753 | 97.7% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 1.555 | 26.3% | Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026? | Binary |
| 1.239 | 9.5% | Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.120 | 6.5% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.029 | 17.5% | When will Microsoft release Windows 12? | Continuous |
| 0.878 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Cohere) | Binary |
| 0.871 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (xAI) | Binary |
| 0.654 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Apple) | Binary |
| 0.590 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (IBM) | Binary |
| 0.475 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (AI21) | Binary |
| 0.450 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 0.436 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai) | Binary |
| 0.435 | 6.8% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 0.408 | 16.3% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Perplexity AI) | Binary |
| 0.117 | 6.8% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 0.087 | 6.8% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 0.081 | 0.6% | Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.230 | 97.4% | Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025? | Binary |
| -0.271 | 14.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| -0.682 | 7.1% | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (1,000) | Binary |
| -0.827 | 14.5% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| -2.244 | 23.4% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| -2.740 | 72.5% | How many of Donald Trump's appointments to the cabinet will not be confirmed by the Senate? | Multiple Choice |
| -3.285 | 96.1% | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (January 18, 2025) | Continuous |
| -4.918 | 85.9% | How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025? | Continuous |
| -8.084 | 17.9% | When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US? | Continuous |
| -10.898 | 82.6% | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (February 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| -13.964 | 94.2% | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H5) | Continuous |
| -14.711 | 96.5% | Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025? | Binary |
| -16.485 | 90.3% | What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the end of April 2025? | Continuous |
| -21.001 | 82.5% | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (February 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| -28.115 | 68.6% | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026? | Binary |
| -29.285 | 96.9% | What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2024-25 season be among the following groups in the US? (Eligible pregnant persons) | Continuous |