edoardo.baratelli

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.644		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
78.086	80.0%	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
72.885	60.2%	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
52.348	33.0%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
49.684	34.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
45.670	90.0%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
32.722	61.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
30.712	87.8%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
30.123	56.1%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
30.042	70.0%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
28.590	80.0%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
24.138	90.0%	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
22.389	60.2%	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
21.996	35.0%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
21.523	64.2%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
20.853	53.0%	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.977	59.2%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.792	60.2%	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.422	40.5%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
18.856	44.2%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
18.213	42.5%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
18.082	60.3%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.412	58.3%	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.332	31.2%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
16.906	60.3%	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
16.581	59.4%	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
16.062	57.2%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
15.677	34.7%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
14.784	33.2%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
14.388	27.7%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
13.728	98.1%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
13.462	53.4%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.421	61.3%	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.131	33.2%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
11.123	35.3%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
10.981	27.7%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
10.458	64.4%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
10.043	44.3%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
9.647	33.2%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
8.786	35.3%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
8.764	60.4%	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.392	30.9%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
8.016	29.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.897	31.1%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
7.839	61.3%	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
7.605	33.1%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
7.594	35.6%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
7.481	34.6%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
7.177	61.3%	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
7.114	61.3%	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
7.004	90.0%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
6.866	33.1%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
6.715	35.3%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
6.467	20.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
6.337	34.7%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
6.337	34.6%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
6.248	12.4%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
6.111	50.0%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
5.739	35.1%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
5.662	14.8%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
5.169	52.0%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
5.151	33.1%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
4.525	80.0%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
4.497	60.3%	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.468	41.1%	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
4.060	35.0%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
3.895	26.9%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
3.807	35.3%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
3.311	34.7%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
3.262	29.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
3.139	10.7%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
2.821	29.4%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
2.683	58.3%	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
2.279	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.228	33.1%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.183	35.0%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.690	26.7%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
1.610	29.4%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.344	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.318	22.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.297	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.154	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.138	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.135	5.0%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
1.133	29.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.940	29.4%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
0.933	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
0.923	67.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.844	29.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.834	21.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
0.735	29.4%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.591	29.4%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.582	34.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
0.546	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.454	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
0.421	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.380	34.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.369	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.355	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.298	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.285	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.226	22.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.155	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.089	0.1%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
0.085	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
-0.016	22.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
-0.341	2.0%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
-0.495	33.1%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-0.538	19.8%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
-0.564	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
-1.879	33.1%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
-2.861	33.1%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-5.798	67.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
-6.165	29.4%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-6.562	29.4%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
-6.688	58.3%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-8.626	26.0%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
-9.312	59.3%	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-24.890	13.9%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
-25.210	70.0%	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-40.296	40.7%	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
-41.436	59.4%	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-42.823	60.3%	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-54.726	38.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-79.902	40.7%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
-87.066	61.3%	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-97.740	59.4%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-111.389	26.1%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary