🤖 pgodzinai

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.59		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
120.269	84.4%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.908	96.0%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
81.114	94.1%	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
80.615	84.8%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
75.996	97.9%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
72.819	98.0%	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
66.576	91.8%	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.133	98.9%	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
60.071	84.5%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
58.450	78.1%	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
55.300	88.6%	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
54.627	64.8%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
53.819	89.0%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
52.903	96.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
51.364	84.2%	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
50.167	86.3%	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
49.783	88.8%	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
47.463	95.7%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
46.997	86.1%	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.306	84.6%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.643	78.8%	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
44.936	99.9%	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
44.150	88.0%	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.370	96.9%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.294	47.6%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
42.920	86.2%	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
41.906	99.0%	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
41.422	95.5%	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
41.398	80.1%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
41.357	94.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
41.298	62.9%	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
39.999	91.5%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
39.949	88.8%	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?	Binary
39.469	94.8%	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
39.150	85.2%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
38.711	82.1%	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
37.815	92.3%	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
37.801	93.9%	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
36.874	92.4%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
36.528	91.6%	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.280	87.6%	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.852	86.3%	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
35.555	92.5%	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.217	60.7%	Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
34.695	78.9%	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
32.713	62.9%	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.339	59.0%	Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?	Binary
32.167	83.5%	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
32.111	88.1%	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
31.839	95.1%	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
31.791	78.3%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
30.562	98.7%	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
30.240	34.2%	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
30.116	56.3%	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.698	63.8%	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.468	64.8%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
29.157	91.2%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
28.699	95.0%	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.586	68.3%	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.246	98.6%	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
28.208	41.3%	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.162	91.2%	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
27.645	83.6%	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
27.612	85.2%	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.482	95.0%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
27.412	91.0%	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.234	90.0%	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
27.149	95.5%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
26.992	97.1%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
26.816	87.8%	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
26.795	91.9%	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
26.693	91.5%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
26.411	83.2%	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
26.039	98.4%	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.966	92.8%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
25.783	57.1%	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.757	34.3%	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.084	91.7%	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?	Binary
24.989	55.7%	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
24.066	93.7%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
24.048	59.3%	Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?	Binary
23.820	92.6%	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
23.635	82.4%	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
23.608	88.9%	Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.506	84.6%	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
22.655	54.9%	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
22.361	91.3%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
22.360	40.0%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
22.336	97.6%	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
22.317	78.8%	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
21.760	99.2%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
21.698	80.2%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
21.656	80.3%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
21.462	80.2%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
21.383	54.2%	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
21.353	60.5%	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.032	85.7%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
20.742	99.3%	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
20.474	54.5%	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
20.396	88.7%	Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?	Binary
20.281	97.0%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
20.274	68.5%	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.171	88.4%	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
20.142	44.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
19.816	91.8%	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
19.726	91.3%	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?	Binary
19.607	65.2%	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
19.540	87.7%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
19.380	88.4%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
19.294	98.1%	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
19.240	39.8%	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.163	64.9%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
19.103	83.4%	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
19.065	98.5%	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
19.020	88.8%	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
18.896	77.9%	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
18.894	85.4%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
18.856	97.2%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
18.105	92.9%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
17.757	68.3%	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
17.751	80.3%	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
17.606	63.8%	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.569	33.9%	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.505	88.5%	Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
17.479	39.9%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
16.731	90.0%	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
16.650	77.9%	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
16.266	90.1%	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
16.184	47.3%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.095	90.9%	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.074	98.4%	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.068	57.0%	Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
15.713	86.1%	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
15.619	86.1%	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
15.541	60.3%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
15.008	78.8%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
14.895	80.1%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
14.764	92.0%	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
14.573	23.3%	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
14.308	60.3%	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
14.266	97.9%	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
14.142	78.9%	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
13.914	89.9%	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.887	92.2%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
13.737	87.8%	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
13.698	91.3%	Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
13.567	63.7%	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
13.300	86.2%	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.075	39.5%	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
12.979	95.1%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
12.641	40.2%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
12.409	60.8%	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
12.350	91.7%	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.134	91.3%	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.658	41.2%	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
11.625	95.9%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
11.622	98.4%	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?	Binary
11.404	91.2%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
11.369	47.4%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.250	78.8%	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
10.772	82.4%	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
10.723	92.3%	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
10.401	40.1%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
10.360	99.9%	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
10.309	97.9%	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
10.057	91.4%	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?	Binary
9.816	87.1%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
9.781	55.8%	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
9.554	95.8%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
9.401	68.4%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
9.310	57.0%	Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
9.202	78.8%	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
8.840	83.1%	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
8.739	68.6%	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
8.622	91.5%	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
8.425	86.4%	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
8.223	54.3%	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.198	86.1%	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.159	63.6%	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.901	88.4%	Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?	Binary
7.843	88.6%	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
7.745	63.5%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.737	84.5%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
7.677	78.7%	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
7.580	98.4%	Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
7.426	65.1%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
7.421	88.0%	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.377	92.3%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
7.347	55.1%	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
7.340	93.8%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
7.058	99.1%	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
6.949	44.7%	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
6.892	91.3%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
6.586	63.9%	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.584	61.0%	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
6.529	79.0%	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
6.477	78.0%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
6.290	99.1%	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.261	54.1%	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
6.133	78.1%	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
5.756	57.2%	Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
5.435	56.0%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
5.253	84.4%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.955	44.8%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.796	86.1%	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
4.632	60.9%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
4.551	50.1%	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
4.387	91.3%	On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?	Binary
4.120	31.0%	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
4.101	80.4%	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
3.609	95.4%	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
3.355	54.6%	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
3.240	47.4%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
3.213	92.1%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
2.754	63.0%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.663	77.1%	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
2.628	60.7%	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
2.591	89.0%	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
2.355	98.6%	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
1.991	63.6%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.825	60.4%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
1.568	33.5%	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.284	78.8%	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
1.201	93.9%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
0.529	76.9%	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.257	44.8%	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
0.136	0.9%	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.120	1.8%	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.068	80.1%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-0.120	79.9%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-0.257	95.0%	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
-0.333	1.0%	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.650	86.1%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.705	0.9%	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.919	33.8%	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.618	90.3%	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.149	80.4%	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.569	82.5%	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-3.712	79.7%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-4.266	83.7%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-4.368	77.9%	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-4.483	78.7%	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.596	85.1%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
-4.894	68.5%	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
-5.376	76.8%	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
-5.580	79.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
-6.536	98.6%	Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?	Binary
-6.579	47.5%	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
-7.151	79.0%	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-8.681	59.4%	Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
-9.058	87.6%	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
-9.059	55.8%	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-9.220	91.0%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-9.331	55.9%	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-10.026	98.4%	Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?	Binary
-10.303	83.4%	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
-11.339	84.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-11.965	50.0%	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-12.937	98.5%	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-15.022	86.1%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.293	58.9%	Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?	Binary
-15.525	56.0%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
-15.793	79.1%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-15.920	64.9%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
-16.397	91.2%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-17.135	78.7%	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-18.735	62.8%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-18.840	53.7%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
-18.901	78.6%	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-19.050	79.3%	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-19.461	57.1%	Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
-20.894	61.3%	On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-21.229	78.8%	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-22.991	95.4%	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-23.836	49.9%	Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Binary
-24.954	63.8%	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-24.986	34.3%	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
-25.249	62.8%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-26.301	78.3%	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-26.334	76.6%	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-26.651	56.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
-27.916	91.5%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.718	78.9%	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-29.362	63.7%	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-31.883	91.7%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-32.815	80.0%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-33.582	84.0%	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-34.720	92.4%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-37.091	39.6%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-37.126	92.4%	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
-38.276	86.2%	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-39.385	77.6%	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-39.978	60.2%	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-45.085	41.5%	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-45.457	80.3%	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-49.508	83.3%	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-51.228	84.3%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-61.236	79.4%	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-61.491	92.4%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
-62.014	91.4%	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-64.578	91.6%	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-67.701	91.4%	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-69.128	92.1%	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-69.508	92.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-70.581	78.7%	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
-72.620	90.1%	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-74.660	97.0%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
-75.906	77.2%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-77.094	85.1%	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-85.223	91.7%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-160.048	97.1%	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary