SpeedingNeutrino

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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18.89		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
131.446	96.9%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
93.553	57.9%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
88.916	98.4%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
88.242	97.8%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
86.709	98.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
86.439	91.5%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
84.621	89.5%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
83.914	98.5%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
76.446	87.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
76.417	98.4%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
72.330	71.7%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
71.693	94.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
70.119	47.3%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
68.926	74.9%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
66.898	91.8%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
63.405	96.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
62.209	86.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
62.003	97.2%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
59.936	59.5%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
56.269	94.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
54.101	95.5%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
52.069	91.0%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
51.311	96.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
50.187	81.6%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
48.425	73.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
48.238	96.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
46.140	83.8%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
45.906	91.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
44.269	65.8%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
42.476	92.3%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
42.172	96.0%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
41.776	64.4%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
37.720	76.3%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
36.197	94.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
34.886	97.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
34.455	98.9%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
34.277	98.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
33.952	97.9%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
32.589	94.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
32.480	80.3%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
32.260	62.1%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
32.025	90.5%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
30.729	56.0%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
29.743	62.1%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
28.978	95.3%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
28.497	95.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
28.420	98.8%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
28.231	52.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
28.111	95.3%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
28.101	94.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
27.941	87.2%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
27.346	81.1%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
26.935	92.3%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
26.017	80.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
24.598	98.9%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
24.567	90.8%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
24.445	95.3%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
23.851	96.2%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
23.165	81.1%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
23.147	80.3%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
21.650	97.8%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
21.147	52.1%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
18.445	65.4%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
18.312	98.5%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
18.278	84.9%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
16.681	32.3%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
16.573	52.1%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
16.428	76.2%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
15.818	95.3%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
15.790	67.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
14.371	32.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
13.941	23.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
13.484	52.1%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
13.432	95.0%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
12.461	78.0%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
12.142	22.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
11.746	17.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.711	80.2%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
11.002	25.7%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
10.978	22.3%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
10.524	16.3%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
10.506	52.1%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
10.104	72.5%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
9.972	50.1%	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
9.934	22.7%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
9.740	62.8%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
9.481	42.2%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
9.471	15.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
9.401	23.5%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
9.092	33.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
8.751	76.4%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
8.566	33.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
7.743	33.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
7.441	52.1%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
7.382	17.9%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
7.367	41.3%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
6.871	21.0%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
6.858	22.3%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
6.503	6.7%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
6.142	57.3%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
6.102	26.7%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
5.097	26.8%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
4.794	22.7%	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
4.637	52.1%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
4.497	65.7%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
4.172	80.5%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
4.071	7.8%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
3.933	17.9%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
3.511	17.9%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
3.510	80.2%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
3.317	76.2%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
3.256	23.5%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
3.167	38.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
3.157	8.0%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
3.114	75.9%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
2.793	28.9%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
2.693	16.7%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
2.568	9.5%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
2.212	52.1%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
2.060	25.7%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
1.909	52.1%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
1.354	27.8%	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
1.189	9.8%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
0.939	8.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
0.633	7.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
0.507	32.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
0.109	21.9%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.066	7.5%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
-2.097	20.3%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
-2.475	52.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
-2.701	17.9%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-3.207	96.7%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-4.237	19.6%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
-7.566	33.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
-10.799	5.4%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-10.995	78.0%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
-13.114	47.0%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-16.274	17.9%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-18.118	60.7%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-19.072	97.5%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-20.153	98.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-21.700	92.6%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-24.072	95.0%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
-29.300	6.2%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-33.632	55.4%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
-37.528	82.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
-40.143	95.0%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
-46.856	58.0%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
-51.264	91.1%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-53.491	78.2%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-53.806	77.9%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-63.118	97.4%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-69.634	80.6%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-71.653	57.9%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-91.054	87.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-215.836	82.8%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
-311.248	64.4%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-394.990	93.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary