9 comments
307 forecasters
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine15%
Israel13%
India13%
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Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?
75% chance
34
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?
46 forecasters
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28% chance
55