19 comments
104 forecasters
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-3153%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-3140%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-3129%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2125
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2125
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
21% chance
422
Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?
62 forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
30.4 months
(8.89 - 115)
30.4 months
(8.89 - 115)
329 forecasters