Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

condition

Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024

Resolved:No

25 forecasters

if yes

if no

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Resolved:Annulled

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Resolved:No

0 comments

25 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024	Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 1%

What was the final result? No

Community Peer Score

3.3

Community Baseline Score

98.0

if Yes

if No

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 19, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2023 Leaderboard

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

4% chance

260

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

68.1% chance

140

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 19, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2023 Leaderboard

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

4% chance

260

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

68.1% chance

140