3 comments
67 forecasters
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
Current estimate
6 labs
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 19, 2023
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
0.5% chance
60
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?
42 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
33 forecasters