Question

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction
5.35 labs
(4.08 labs - 6.81 labs)

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CDF

QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%4.081
median5.347
upper 75%6.814
Upper bound
>250.1%
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Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 19, 2023