114 forecasters

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

55%chance

5 pp this week

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Authors:

dschwarz PeterWildeford will_aldred

Opened:

May 17, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 19, 2023

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?