Question

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved:Yes

7 comments7

Total Forecasters158

Community Prediction

83%

(72% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 83%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

25.5

Community Peer Score

5.1

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

May 30, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 1, 2023

Effective Institutions Project

AI in China

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Databricks, Perplexity co-founder pledges $100M on new fund for AI researchers

TechCrunch•Jun 24, 2025

Checking In on AI and the Big Five

•Jun 23, 2025

A.I. Computing Power Is Splitting the World Into Haves and Have-Nots

New York Times•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.28

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

10%

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

May 30, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 1, 2023

Effective Institutions Project

AI in China

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Databricks, Perplexity co-founder pledges $100M on new fund for AI researchers

TechCrunch•Jun 24, 2025

Checking In on AI and the Big Five

•Jun 23, 2025

A.I. Computing Power Is Splitting the World Into Haves and Have-Nots

New York Times•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.28

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

10%