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20
47
forecasters
5
20 comments
47 forecasters
Geopolitics
1 more...
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
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9
50%
10
35%
11
5%
12+
1%
3 others
1d
1w
2m
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10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035?
80%
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New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?
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Number of Nuclear Weapons Used by 2050
Current estimate
1.01 weapons
4 comments
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# Nuclear Weapons Used by 2050, if Any
Current estimate
7.04 weapons
69 comments
530 forecasters
At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050
35%
chance
9 comments
314 forecasters
Countries With 1+ Fatality From Nuclear Det.
Ukraine
15.1%
Israel
13%
Pakistan
11%
India
10%
4 others
1 comment
37 forecasters
Total Nuclear Weapons >20,000 by 2030
2.5%
chance
6 comments
46 forecasters
Number of Cities Attacked Offensively
Europe
14.7
Russia
13.2
United States
10.7
China
10.5
4 others