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10 comments
43 forecasters

What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?

community
560
result
743
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:Dec 1, 2023
Closes:Feb 29, 2024
Resolved:Jun 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2024
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On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

2024
113
2025
107
52 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

2025
No
2026
2%
2028
15%
2 others
859 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

4% chance
260
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