How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?

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Data from SPINS summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 (Good Food Institute, 2019). Dollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years. Currently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly$1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs.

How much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?

Resolution

This question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by SPINS. The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: milk, meat, meals, ice cream and frozen novelty, yoghurt, creamer, butter, cheese, tofu and tempeh, ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, dressings, and mayo, dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces, eggs.

In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.

The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3.4b in 2017,$4b in 2018, \$4.5b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.

In case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.

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