Question
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1657
Community Prediction
15 Nov 2026
(01 Oct 2025 - 31 Aug 2029)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <Mar 2020 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 01 Oct 2025 | — |
| median | 15 Nov 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 31 Aug 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2200 | 2.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch