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5
79
forecasters
5
5 comments
79 forecasters
Economy & Business
1 more...
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
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Alphabet
31.3%
Anthropic
26.1%
OpenAI
21.9%
Other
11.4%
2 others
Forecast Timeline
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3 comments
95 forecasters
Government project develops first AGI
12%
chance
3 comments
127 forecasters
Corporation develops first AGI
88%
chance
3 comments
95 forecasters
University group develops first AGI
2%
chance
653 comments
1.9k forecasters
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
Current estimate
Dec 2032
18 comments
76 forecasters
Nationalized organization develops first AGI
15%
chance
11 comments
76 forecasters
Non-profit organization develops first AGI
10%
chance
7 comments
103 forecasters
Group To Develop First TAI
For-profit
83%
Government
20%
Non-profit
5%
University
4%
2 others
608 comments
1.7k forecasters
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
Current estimate
01 Jun 2028