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Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?

According to Wikipedia, Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.

Will Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?

This question resolves positively if all of the following occur:

  • Metaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question

    • For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries
  • The payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash)

  • An individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024

If Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

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