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30
90
forecasters
28
30 comments
90 forecasters
Situational Awareness
5 more...
When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?
Predict
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Current estimate
14 Dec 2027
14 Dec 2027
(08 May 2026 - Jun 2032)
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (30)
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19 comments
65 forecasters
Gap between AGI creation and reveal
Current estimate
1005 hours
3 comments
95 forecasters
Government project develops first AGI
12%
chance
5 comments
78 forecasters
Who will develop the first AGI?
Alphabet
33.1%
Anthropic
26.4%
OpenAI
21.6%
Other
10.5%
2 others
51 comments
344 forecasters
Time From (weak) AGI to Superintelligence
Current estimate
34 months
608 comments
1.7k forecasters
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
Current estimate
30 May 2028
36 comments
243 forecasters
Time between weak AGI and oracle ASI
Current estimate
30.6 months
653 comments
1.9k forecasters
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
Current estimate
Dec 2032
18 comments
76 forecasters
Nationalized organization develops first AGI
15%
chance