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Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year?

Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, growing by a factor of 100 during 2017 with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to ~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017, but the proportion is rapidly rising.

Coin offerings have three apparent contributors to their success. First, blockchain-related startups are a dynamic field, and ICOs for coins that provide utility in blockchain-based ventures are thus getting attention and funding. Second, even in companies whose business is not centrally blockchain-based, ICOs are providing a novel form of crowd-based participatory investment, requiring much less effort and paperwork than venture funding so that investment and participation is open to a community of people rather than a relatively small number of early-stage investors. Third, of course, the fact that cryptocurrencies have been rapidly rising of late has led to a great deal of speculative purchasing of coins based on the (quite unreliable) assumption that they will appreciate.

Given that Metaculus is a crowd-based concern with a knowledgeable and (to some degree) crypto-savvy community, and already has an onsite token, it is a natural candidate for a coin offering. On the other hand, Metaculus is run by careful and risk-averse founders who are intimately in touch with the extraordinary unpredictability and volaility of the cryptocurrency field. And there is a good deal of regulatory uncertainty surrounding ICOs in the US and elsewhere... So what do you think:

Will there be a Metaculus ICO in 2018?

Resolution will be positive if prior to start of 2019 a cryptocurrency identified with Metaculus is (a) listed on any of icodrops, tokendata or coinschedules, or (b) if by credible report more than $10,000 total value in cryptocurrency or other currency has been exchanged by more than 25 people for a Metaculus-related cryptocurrency.


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