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Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year?
Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, growing by a factor of 100 during 2017 with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to ~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017, but the proportion is rapidly rising.
Coin offerings have three apparent contributors to their success. First, blockchain-related startups are a dynamic field, and ICOs for coins that provide utility in blockchain-based ventures are thus getting attention and funding. Second, even in companies whose business is not centrally blockchain-based, ICOs are providing a novel form of crowd-based participatory investment, requiring much less effort and paperwork than venture funding so that investment and participation is open to a community of people rather than a relatively small number of early-stage investors. Third, of course, the fact that cryptocurrencies have been rapidly rising of late has led to a great deal of speculative purchasing of coins based on the (quite unreliable) assumption that they will appreciate.
Given that Metaculus is a crowd-based concern with a knowledgeable and (to some degree) crypto-savvy community, and already has an onsite token, it is a natural candidate for a coin offering. On the other hand, Metaculus is run by careful and risk-averse founders who are intimately in touch with the extraordinary unpredictability and volaility of the cryptocurrency field. And there is a good deal of regulatory uncertainty surrounding ICOs in the US and elsewhere... So what do you think:
Will there be a Metaculus ICO in 2018?
Resolution will be positive if prior to start of 2019 a cryptocurrency identified with Metaculus is (a) listed on any of icodrops, tokendata or coinschedules, or (b) if by credible report more than $10,000 total value in cryptocurrency or other currency has been exchanged by more than 25 people for a Metaculus-related cryptocurrency.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.