Question

For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?

Resolved:0.235

8 comments8

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

0.717

(0.422 - 0.985)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	<-5	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>5
community	0.1%	0.4224	0.717	0.9854	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<-5	0.1%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	0.4224	—
median	0.717	—
upper 75%	0.9854	—
Upper bound
>5	0.1%	—

What was the final result?0.235

Community Baseline Score

86.0

Community Peer Score

-0.6

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 15, 2021

Closes:

Sep 2, 2021

Resolves:

Sep 3, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 17, 2021

Trade Signal Tournament

Economy & Business

2021 Leaderboard

On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?

-642

What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months?

114k

What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?

4.28