Question

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

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Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction

89%

(74% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 89%

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 27, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran-Israel ‘threshold war’ has rewritten nuclear escalation rules

The Conversation•Jun 16, 2025

World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI

Al Jazeera•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

10%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

75%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%