Question

How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?

Resolved:12.512k

7 comments7

Total Forecasters119

Community Prediction

12.7k

(12.1k - 13.3k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<0	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>50k
community	0.5%	12.09k	12.67k	13.32k	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0	0.5%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	12.09k	—
median	12.67k	—
upper 75%	13.32k	—
Upper bound
>50k	0.1%	—

What was the final result?12.512k

Community Baseline Score

149.6

Community Peer Score

15.0

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 22, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 23, 2021

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