Authors:
Opened:Jun 22, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 23, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?
5% chance
33
How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?
6683 weapons
(902 - 38.9k)
6683 weapons
(902 - 38.9k)
21 forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?
10.4k weapons
(6965 - 17.4k)
10.4k weapons
(6965 - 17.4k)
17 forecasters