Question

Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?

Resolved:No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters113

Community Prediction

0.4%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

69.2

Community Peer Score

11.8

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

China could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the US or Russia by 2030, weapons watchdog says

•Jun 17, 2025

As new arms race looms, China's nuke arsenal up to 600 warheads now, estimates global think tank in annual inventory of world's weapons

•Jun 16, 2025

Major powers are ‘upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions’

•Jun 16, 2025

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Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

75%

How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

7282