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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
13 comments
58 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

5%chance

Key Factors

14 comments
21 forecasters

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

12%chance
13% this week
6 comments
46 forecasters

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Europe12.6
Russia10.7
United States9.88
3 comments
5 forecasters

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Engineering4575
Physics548
Microbiology and immunology543
17 comments
152 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

10%chance
0 comments
31 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

1%chance
2% this week
6 comments
10 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate
Mar 2062
4 comments
29 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

22%chance
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

15%chance
28 comments
413 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

13.5%chance