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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

35%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?

Key Factor

Israeli air strikes risk diplomatic collapse

6%chance

Key Factor

Israeli air strikes risk diplomatic collapse

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

result13 Jun 2025 03:00

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

3.8%chance

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

30%chance

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.3%chance

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran67%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

18%chance

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

50%chance