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1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

15%chance
373 comments
1.8k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance
28 comments
409 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%chance
6 comments
8 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate
Jan 2061
4 comments
73 forecasters

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

3%chance
0 comments
64 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

4%chance
184 comments
621 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

30%chance
6 comments
24 forecasters

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

56%chance
15 comments
282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29%chance
4 comments
67 forecasters

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

16%chance