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US Democracy Index

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Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

6%chance

Key Factors

4 comments

29 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

22%chance

13.7% this week

17 comments

150 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance

0 comments

28 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

3%chance

2% this week

3 comments

5 forecasters

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Engineering10k

Physics548

Microbiology and immunology543

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

condition

14 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

1 comment

4 forecasters

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

15%chance

condition

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?

31 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

33%

US-China war before 2035?

31 forecasters

342 forecasters

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

9%chance

Key Factors

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?