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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

Key Factor

Voter turnout challenges in past referendums

resultNo

Key Factor

Voter turnout challenges in past referendums

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

13%chance
16% this week

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

27%chance
14.5% this week
condition

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?

29 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

20%
20%

US-China war before 2035?

15%
15%
4
no comments0
The Taiwan Tinderbox

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

950%
1038.5%
1111%
and 4 others

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

1%chance

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

Key Factor

Israeli air strikes risk diplomatic collapse

1.8%chance

Key Factor

Israeli air strikes risk diplomatic collapse

If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?

124 k$
10.7 k$ this week

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran63%
Saudi Arabia14%
South Korea10%
and 7 others