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13
comments
58
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
5%
chance
Key Factors
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
14
comments
21
forecasters
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
12%
chance
13%
this week
6
comments
46
forecasters
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?
Europe
12.6
Russia
10.7
United States
9.88
5 others
3
comments
5
forecasters
How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
Engineering
4575
Physics
548
Microbiology and immunology
543
9 others
17
comments
152
forecasters
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
10%
chance
0
comments
31
forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
1%
chance
2%
this week
6
comments
10
forecasters
When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?
Current estimate
Mar 2062
4
comments
29
forecasters
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
22%
chance
1
comment
4
forecasters
Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?
15%
chance
28
comments
413
forecasters
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
13.5%
chance
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