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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

30%chance
6% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?

Key Factor

Israeli air strikes risk diplomatic collapse

5%chance

Key Factor

Israeli air strikes risk diplomatic collapse

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

result13 Jun 2025 03:00

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

May 2042

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

1%chance

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.5%chance

When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?

Ambiguous

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

2
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

00