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US Democracy Index

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When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

01 Sep 2029

17 comments

147 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance

3% this week

condition

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud20%

Microsoft Azure14%

39 comments

63 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

3 comments

10 forecasters

How large will the global market for perovskite solar cells be (in millions of dollars) in 2030?

Current estimate

6867 $M

3 comments

5 forecasters

What will be the sector weighting of the Technology and Communication Services Sector in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2027?

Current estimate

0.449%

Contributed by the Adjacent community.

4 comments

9 forecasters

Will the market capitalization for USDT & USDC stablecoins surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?

85%chance

10% this week

condition

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

13 forecasters

if yes

if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

22%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

13%

0 comments

13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

How large will the global market for perovskite solar cells be (in millions of dollars) in 2030?

What will be the sector weighting of the Technology and Communication Services Sector in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2027?

Will the market capitalization for USDT & USDC stablecoins surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

How large will the global market for perovskite solar cells be (in millions of dollars) in 2030?

What will be the sector weighting of the Technology and Communication Services Sector in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2027?

Will the market capitalization for USDT & USDC stablecoins surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)