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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win72.1%
Nathan Young win25.8%
Other2.1%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

30%chance
5% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates?

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?

Key Factor

Public support removal impacts pace but not growth

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Key Factor

Public support removal impacts pace but not growth

Contributed by the Unjournal Forecasting community.

What will be the average production cost (per edible kg) of cell-cultured chicken meat at the end of the following years (between 2026-2051) across all large-scale plants in the world?

Forecast revealed in 3 months

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, what will be the index value for Labor Productivity for the "Information" sector for the fourth quarter of 2028?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

77%chance
4% this week